The AFC North is undergoing a sweeping change of the guard.
John Harbaugh, Mike Tomlin, and Kevin Stefanski are all gone. Zac Taylor is now the longest-tenured coach in the division. Let's look at the betting angles for one of football's toughest divisions.
Continue below for Stuckey and Anthony Dabbundo's favorite AFC North predictions for the 2026 NFL season, which include a division winner best bet and three win total angles for this season.
NFL Futures — AFC North Predictions
| NFL Futures Picks |
|---|
| Division Winner Best Bet |
| Ravens Win Total Bet |
| Steelers Win Total Bet |
| Browns Win Total Lean |
Bengals to Win the AFC North (+185)
I am backing the Bengals to win the division at +185. I have them projected to win 10.6 games, giving them the highest projection in the AFC North.
For the first time in the Joe Burrow era, he is entering the season healthy and returning the same five starting offensive linemen. If Burrow is upright, this is a top-five offense.
The defense is the key. In the second half of last year, Al Golden simplified the scheme for their rookie linebackers, moving Dax Hill and DJ Turner to the outside, and the defense improved from 32nd to 13th in DVOA.
They added Dexter Lawrence to the interior this offseason, and the biggest addition by subtraction is that they no longer have to face Myles Garrett twice a year.
The cherry on top? They have the easiest schedule in the league, with non-divisional road games against Houston, Miami, Washington, Carolina, Indianapolis, and Atlanta.
I couldn't bet the under because the schedule is just too easy, but I'm hesitant on the offense. They are shifting away from the shotgun spread that isolated their playmakers, moving to more under-center concepts.
I'm not entirely sure this group of players fits that new mold flawlessly. They might be flat-track bullies who beat up on a weak schedule, but I want to see how they handle Pittsburgh and Houston early.
Ravens Under 11.5 Wins (-115)
I project the Ravens at 10.5 wins, making me lean heavily toward the under.
I want to see this team prove they can win 12 games after all of the offseason turnover, headlined by the firing of head coach John Harbaugh, who was replaced by Jesse Minter.
The offensive line interior is a mess. They lost All-Pro center Tyler Linderbaum and are replacing him with Ethan Pocic, while starting John Simpson and rookie Olaivavega Ioane at the guard spots.
Ronnie Stanley is 32. Lamar Jackson is 29, dealing with mounting injuries, and visibly lacks the same explosive burst he had a few years ago.
Defensively, Marlon Humphrey is washed, Chidobe Awuzie is 31, and they are relying heavily on aging linebackers.
I am highly skeptical that new OC Declan Doyle and DC Jesse Minter can provide enough of a schematic bump to overcome these aging curves and roster holes.
The very first bet I placed this season was the Ravens Under 11.5 Wins.
I don't know what they are in the trenches anymore. Their explosive play rate took a massive dip on both sides of the ball last year.
The Ravens ranked 28th in generating pressure defensively, and relying on aging corners past 30 is a terrifying proposition against modern AFC offenses.
Steelers Over 8.5 Wins (-110) / to Win AFC North (+550)
I wanted to sell the Steelers so badly. Mike McCarthy doesn't inspire confidence, not to mention bringing back a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers and moving pieces all over an unproven offensive line.
But I priced it out, and they sit right at 8.5 wins for me.
Why? The defense. Patrick Graham has an absolute all-star team to work with.
If Joey Porter, Jalen Ramsey, Jamel Dean, Jaquan Brisker, and DeShon Elliott stay healthy, this secondary is lethal behind a front seven that still features T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward.
The Steelers are my pick to win the division at +550, and I am hammering Over 8.5 Wins.
If there is a defense outside the consensus top-five that can jump into elite status, it's Pittsburgh.
Mike Tomlin's defense slowly slid off a cliff against competent offenses last year, but Patrick Graham should provide a massive upgrade.
Aaron Rodgers is going to play safe, limit turnovers, and let this defense generate short fields.
As long as Rodgers survives a brutal post-bye stretch (at CIN, at PHI, DEN, HOU), the Steelers should be able to win 9 or 10 games.
Browns Under 5.5 Wins (Lean)
Do we really need to talk about the Browns? They traded Myles Garrett, signaling a complete rebuild.
Denzel Ward is turning 30 with a long concussion history, and they have arguably the worst cornerback depth in the entire league.
The offensive line is starting five new players, including a rookie at left tackle.
Deshaun Watson is somehow still the starting quarterback. It's a completely lost season, though they have an incredibly easy schedule that might luck them into five or six wins.
I want to bet the under so badly, but their schedule is terrifyingly easy down the stretch.
Still, the stats without Myles Garrett are alarming. Since 2020, the Browns are the No. 1 pass defense when Garrett is on the field, and 32nd when he is off the field.
Without Garrett's gravity drawing double-teams, this secondary is going to get exposed constantly.
