Moving over to AFC East futures predictions, the market tells us this is essentially a two-horse race between the Bills (-135) and the Patriots (+125), with the Jets (+2000) and Dolphins (+4000) in total rebuild modes.
Let’s break down the betting angles.
Continue below for our favorite AFC East predictions for the 2026 NFL season, which include a bet on the Bills to make the playoffs via Wild Card, and angles for the other three teams' win totals.
NFL Futures — AFC East Predictions
| NFL Futures Picks |
|---|
| Bills to Earn a Wild Card |
| Patriots Win Total Bet |
| Jets Win Total Bet |
| Dolphins Win Total Lean |
Bills to Make the Playoffs as a Wild Card (+150)
The Bills are a model of consistency, averaging 12.2 wins per 17 games since 2020.
The biggest story here is the defensive philosophy shift. They got rid of 11 players aged 29 or older, moved on from Sean McDermott’s zone scheme, and brought in Jim Leonhard as defensive coordinator.
Leonhard is implementing an aggressive, man-heavy, 3-man base front. The theory is sound, but I question if they have the personnel to run it. Guys like Christian Benford and Maxwell Hairston were drafted specifically to play zone.
With a much tougher schedule on deck, I have some concerns, though betting against Josh Allen is usually a fool's errand.
Buffalo boasts the second-best net-rest advantage in the NFL this year at +14.
However, the non-divisional schedule makes me feel like the Bills are ripe for a Wild Card berth versus a division crown.
I'm playing the Bills to make the Playoffs as a Wild Card (+150).
Patriots Under 10.5 Wins (-115)
The regression monster is coming for New England.
Last year, the Patriots went 14-3, rode a wave of historic luck, and had the easiest schedule in the NFL. They went 7-3 in one-score games, had insane fumble luck, and went 18-for-25 on fourth downs.
This year, they get a first-place schedule that is drastically more difficult.
Adding AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs on paper is great, but Drake Maye showed massive flaws in the playoffs when teams adjusted.
I project them at 9.8 wins. Give me the under all day.
I disagree here. I look at this team and see a really complete roster with a great coach in Mike Vrabel despite his personally turbulent offseason.
Even with a tougher schedule, they still sit with the fifth-easiest strength of schedule in the league based on opponent win totals.
I like the Patriots to win the AFC East, and I also love Drake Maye Over 3.5 Rushing Touchdowns.
Jets Over 5.5 Wins (+110)
This is for the sickos, but I am backing the Jets.
Last year was a 3-14 disaster marred by historically bad luck. They finished with a -19 turnover margin and were the first team in NFL history to record zero interceptions on the defensive side of the ball.
They got much younger on defense, added Geno Smith for stability at QB, and have nowhere to go but up in the variance department.
Sure, management might want to tank for a historically good 2027 QB class, but coaches and players play to win on Sundays.
I project them a little over 6 wins, so I’m taking the over at plus-money.
I see the vision for the Jets, but I am worried about management enforcing a tank late in the season.
Because of that, I prefer taking the Jets to have more Regular Season Wins than the Raiders (+130).
Dolphins Over 3.5 Wins (Lean)
Miami finally ripped off the band-aid and initiated a complete rebuild.
The Dolphins' roster is barren, the receivers are unproven, and the schedule is an absolute gauntlet.
However, since 1990, there have only been six teams with a preseason win total of 4 or less. Every single one of them won at least 4 games.
I project them at 4.1 wins. I can't in good conscience bet the under on a 3.5, so it's a lean to the over, even if it's terrifying.
Miami is going to be abysmal.
Instead of messing with a historically low win total, I prefer taking the Cardinals to have more wins than the Dolphins at plus-money.
