The NFL season is heating up in Week 2, and I have some NFL player props locked in for this Sunday.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 2 — keep tabs on this story as I continue to add more Week 2 prop picks.
Sean Koerner's NFL Player Props — Week 2
- QB Aaron Rodgers Under 232.5 Pass Yards (-115; BetMGM)
- RB Kyren Williams Over 72.5 Rush Yards (-115; BetMGM)
- WR Travis Hunter Over 4.5 Receptions (+114; FanDuel)
- WR DeAndre Hopkins Under 22.5 Reception Yards (-114; FanDuel)
- QB Russell Wilson Under 217.5 Pass Yards (-110; FanDuel)
- WR Rome Odunze Over 45.5 Reception Yards (-114; DraftKings)
Seahawks vs Steelers Player Prop: Aaron Rodgers Pass Yards
While Aaron Rodgers looked like he finally found the right offseason drug cocktail to flash some of his Packers glory days in Week 1, 71% of his 244 passing yards were after the catch, the highest rate of the week.
He had the lowest average air yards of the week at 4.3 and he did not attempt a single pass downfield that went 20+ yards. If the Steelers repeat anything close to that approach, it will be much tougher for him to clear this prop.
Last week, the Steelers trailed for about 40 minutes, which forced them into a pass-heavy game script. As 3-point home favorites here, they should be able to lean on the run more.
The Seahawks should also be run-heavy and eat up time of possession, while their defense should be much better in Year 2 under head coach Mike Macdonald.
I would set Rodgers’ median closer to 223.5 yards with a handful of underlying factors pointing to a lower passing yardage outcome.
Rams vs Titans Player Prop: Kyren Williams Rush Yards
The Rams went 10-7 and made the playoffs last year despite playing with the lead only 27% of the time (6th lowest).
As 5.5-point favorites here, I project them to play with the lead at a rate about 23% higher than last season. That sets up a rare positive game script where Kyren Williams’ volume should spike.
The matchup also lines up perfectly with his rushing profile.
Williams ran inside on 83% of his carries in Week 1 (second-highest among running backs). Tennessee has struggled to stop inside runs, allowing the third-highest rushing yards over expected per attempt last season and the second-highest in Week 1.
Now they’ll be without nose tackle T’Vondre Sweat (team-best 2% missed tackle rate last season). His replacement, fellow NT Shy Tuttle, was a liability for Carolina’s run defense last season. Both players are central to stopping inside runs, which makes this a smash spot for Williams.
I project his median to be closer to 80.5 yards, with about a 62% chance that he clears 72.5 yards.
Jaguars vs Bengals Player Prop: Travis Hunter Receptions
One of my favorite angles each year is targeting rookie wide receivers in specific markets before public perception fully catches up. I don’t always nail the timing, and variance happens (for example, I hit Brian Thomas Jr.’s long reception Over 18.5 in Week 1, and it came up short, but that number was too good to last).
Sometimes I time it just right, like Justin Jefferson Over 21.5 receiving yards or CeeDee Lamb Over 3.5 receptions; props that look silly now. Hunter’s reception line at 4.5 isn’t far off that mold, and I want to buy in early.
He went for 6/33/0 in his debut, but the arrow only points up. People may overlook his WR ceiling because he also plays CB, but he gives me early-career Odell Beckham Jr. vibes, and he has the potential to be above average after the catch.
Jaguars head coach Liam Coen wasted no time featuring him in the most optimal way. Hunter lined up in the slot and was schemed touches the way Coen used Chris Godwin or Cooper Kupp in past offenses.
Hunter caught three screen passes in Week 1, a predictive marker for a solid reception floor. In fact, all six of his catches came on throws within 10 air yards, which means any downfield grabs will just be a bonus.
Hunter led the team with a 26% target rate (BTJ was 23%, Hunter will start opening up downfield plays for him) and still caught six passes in a game Jacksonville controlled easily, holding the lead for 46 minutes (fifth-highest rate of the week, even longer when you include the rain delay!).
Now he draws the Bengals in a game script that should force the Jaguars to pass much more often.
I project Hunter at about 5.1 receptions with a 58% chance to clear 4.5, and we’re getting plus odds to back it.
Browns vs Ravens Player Prop: DeAndre Hopkins Reception Yards
DeAndre Hopkins flashed in his Ravens debut with a 2/35/1 line, highlighted by a vintage one-handed 29-yard score. It was the type of catch he’s made many times in his potential Hall of Fame career — but the underlying usage tells a different story.
Hopkins only ran 11 routes (55% route rate) and was used strictly in 11 personnel, a grouping the Ravens deploy at one of the lowest rates in the league. Baltimore leaned on it more in Week 1 because Patrick Ricard and Isaiah Likely were out, and both will be out again this week.
Even so, the Ravens stayed relatively run heavy in a back-and-forth game. Now, as double-digit favorites, the script points to an even more run-centric approach, which could further cap Hopkins’ routes.
He was efficient on limited volume last week, catching both of his targets, but according to Next Gen Stats, his touchdown grab had only a 33% chance of being completed. Without that low-probability catch, he would have finished with just six yards.
That highlights the volatility here: Hopkins can always pop for a 20-plus yard gain, but his floor is much lower than the line suggests. I project his median closer to 17.5 yards with about a 60% chance he stays under 22.5.
Adding to the concern, the Browns’ cornerback duo of Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome looked excellent in Week 1, and Cleveland allowed the eighth-lowest yards per route run to WRs in 11 personnel against the Bengals, no less.
Giants vs Cowboys Player Prop: Russell Wilson Pass Yards
I think there’s a realistic chance we see Jaxson Dart replace Russell Wilson in-game as soon as this week.
What’s “realistic?” Maybe 5%. Doesn’t sound too crazy, right? Even that slim chance gives sneaky value on the under, but I see other paths that help too.
If Wilson plays well and the Giants keep things close, they can run a more balanced, run-heavy approach than Week 1, when they trailed for 52 minutes (fourth-highest rate) in their 21-6 loss to Washington.
Yes, they’re six-point underdogs, but that actually projects them to play with the lead 18% more often than their 2024 average. In that type of game script, Wilson would naturally come in under.
The deeper issue is his profile in this offense. He attempted a 20+ yard pass on just 3% of throws in Week 1, by far the lowest rate of his career and over 10% below his career average.
That led to 5.7 air yards per attempt, also the lowest of his career. Wilson is throwing underneath at a career-high rate in Brian Daboll’s scheme and scrambled on six dropbacks, another late-career high.
The line itself looks inflated. Wilson’s best-case path to piling up yards would be a big negative game script that forces New York to go ultra pass heavy. But that’s also when Daboll might decide to give Dart his first look, especially in a lower-stakes spot like Dallas without Micah Parsons.
I project Wilson closer to 207.5 yards, and with enough sneaky downside baked in, I give him about a 60% chance to stay under 217.5.
Bears vs Lions Player Prop: Rome Odunze Over 45.5 Reception Yards
I was high on Rome Odunze entering the season, and he’s a clear buy-low heading into a potential Year 2 breakout in HC Ben Johnson’s scheme. Odunze should also develop better chemistry with Caleb Williams, who is likely to improve in his sophomore season.
Week 1 was a mixed bag.
Odunze operated as the clear No. 1 in the Bears offense, leading the team with a 23% target share. Still, Odunze and Williams missed on a couple of throws, including one play that was clearly designed for the receiver, but he never got the ball because Williams didn’t trust the read.
Part of the issue came against Minnesota’s zone-heavy defense, which muted some of Odunze’s upside.
Against man coverage, though, Odunze showed exactly why I’m bullish. He ran only four man-coverage routes but drew three targets, and according to FantasyPoints data, his 1.333 separation score ranked second-highest in Week 1. That lines up with his ability to consistently win vs. man.
The Lions play man at one of the highest rates in the league, and that continued in Week 1, even with a new defensive coordinator.
This is the perfect spot to buy low on Odunze, and his yardage prop is the way I want to attack it.
I project his median closer to 53.5 yards and give him about a 60% chance to clear 45.5.
