I'm targeting three NFL spreads on Sunday of Week 9, including picks for Vikings vs Lions, Panthers vs Packers, and Bills vs Chiefs.
Continue below for my expert NFL picks and analysis for the ninth NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
NFL Predictions & Spread Picks
  |   |   |
Vikings vs Lions
I came into the season lower on Minnesota than most, but a spread of more than a TD in a division game is excessive.
This season, favorites have generally crushed, going 68-54 (55.7%) ATS overall, but 'dogs +7 to +9.5 are 13-8 (61.9%) ATS.
The Vikings are healthier than they’ve been at almost any point in the season.
Offensively, their preferred quarterback, J.J. McCarthy, is off the injury report and will start for the first time since Week 2.
Starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw (questionable-knee) and starting right tackle Brian O’Neill (questionable-knee) are slated to appear in only their fourth game together – and first together with McCarthy.
Running back Aaron Jones returned from the IR last week and will make his fourth appearance. Wide receiver Jordan Addison will make his fifth appearance of the year (and first with McCarthy) after sitting out the first three games due to suspension.
Defensively, edge rusher Andrew Van Ginkel (questionable-neck) practiced in full all week and is on track to make only his third appearance of the season.
Van Ginkel makes a big difference in the defense due to his ability to set the edge, rush the passer, tackle in space, and create turnovers for himself and others.
Linebacker Blake Cashman will make his fourth appearance of the season. Safety Harrison Smith is also healthy for the third straight game after missing two games and failing to play 50% of the snaps in three more.
The Lions are off to yet another strong start, but with cornerback D.J Reed (IR-hamstring) and safety Kerby Joseph (knee) out and cornerback Terrion Arnold struggling (49.3 PFF grade, 102 of 113 qualified CBs), the Lions will be vulnerable to a team with strong wide receivers like the Vikings with Justin Jefferson, Addison, and Jalen Nailor.
And while Jared Goff has handled the blitz well this season (9.2 YPA, 5 TD, 0 INT, per PFF), he hasn’t seen an overall pass rush on the level of the Vikings, who despite a ton of missed games from key players are third in pressure rate (29.7%), per Pro Football Reference.
Per PFF, Goff is averaging 6.8 YPA with 0 TD and 2 INT versus pressure.
The interior line could be a target off Brian Flores’ exotic blitzes, as center Graham Glasgow (62.8) has been their lowest-graded lineman overall, while the pass-blocking grades of guards Christian Mahogany (54.7) and Tate Ratledge (45.9) rank 53rd and 69th, respectively, among 79 qualifiers.
The Lions have been their typical selves at 5-2 (71.4%) ATS, but according to Action Labs, home 'dogs since 2005 covering 60% or more are 56-85-2 (40%) ATS in Weeks 9-10.
Also per Action Labs, divisional home favorites with four or more ATS wins in their last six games like Detroit are 71-99-7 (42%) ATS over the past two decades.
Pick: Vikings +8.5
| | |
Panthers vs Packers
After running 4.4 routes per game in the first five games, FitzPatrick has run nine and 11 routes respectively over the past two games.
Last week, he ran the third-most red zone routes on the team (4), trailing only Tucker Kraft (6) and Romeo Doubs (5).
Fitzpatrick is underpriced against a Panthers defense ranked 32nd in DVOA versus tight ends.
He could also see increased snaps in the case of a blowout, which is certainly possible with Green Bay favored by 13 at home.
Pick: John FitzPatrick Anytime TD (+1300)
| | |
Chiefs vs Bills
With Josh Allen at quarterback, the Bills haven’t lost straight-up or against the spread as a home ‘dog since Oct. 19, 2020.
Overall, Allen is a 7-4 (64%) ATS as a home 'dog and 20-11-2 (65%) ATS as a 'dog, regardless of location, covering by 5.1 points per game.
In duels with Patrick Mahomes, Allen is 0-4 ATS in the postseason, but 4-1 ATS in the regular season – including 4-0 in his last four – covering by 5.9 points per game.
Buffalo’s biggest weakness is run defense (30th in DVOA) – especially after the loss of Ed Oliver (IR-biceps). However, that weakness is minimized against a Chiefs offense that leads the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expected (+8.1%), per NFELO.
Kansas City will also be without its best running back, Isiah Pacheco (knee). Kareem Hunt is averaging just 3.71 YPC since joining the team last season.
While Kansas City’s offense sits at No. 2 in DVOA, Buffalo is right behind at No. 4.
The Bills also have some unrealized rushing upside from Josh Allen, who tends to increase his volume when needed most and averages 10.6 carries per game against the Chiefs in his career in the regular season, most of any opponent.(Allen is averaging 7.0 carries per game this season and 6.8 for his career.)
All the Chiefs’ biggest wins – Philadelphia, Baltimore, Detroit – have come at home, and this is also their first road game after three straight in Arrowhead.
Given both of these teams have fairly strong home-field advantages, installing the Chiefs as favorites in Buffalo suggest they are 3+ points better than the Bills on a neutral site, which I don’t believe is the case as long as the Bills have a healthy Allen helming the offense.
Pick: Bills +1.5 (-110)
| | |
