Thursday Night Football in Week 12 features a potential AFC playoff preview between the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.
- For more Thursday Night Football coverage, check out our Bills vs Texans preview, which includes our spread pick for TNF.
For my top Bills vs Texans NFL PrizePicks and Underdog plays, I’m highlighting Christian Kirk, Nick Chubb, and James Cook.
Christian Kirk
More Than 11.5 Receiving Yards
The Texans are projected to be trailing in this matchup, which means we are likely to see an increase in passing attempts, especially in the second half.
There is one receiver who's being overlooked — Christian Kirk.
Kirk was originally signed to be the No. 2 target on this team, but losing multiple weeks to injury has caused him to lose his grip on that role. However, in three games since his return, he has garnered 15 receptions and hauled in six of them.
While his reception rate is low, the target volume for Kirk is there, and he has the potential to exceed this total with one catch, and he likely has more than one reception.
Nick Chubb
More Than Than 5.5 Rushing Attempts
The ascension of Woody Marks has been far overblown in the Texans offense.
Yes, Nick Chubb has just eight carries over the last two weeks, but he has a defined role and the opportunity to lead the backfield again as Houston will run the ball early.
The Bills are vulnerable on the ground, ranking 31st in yards per rush allowed, and are last in rushing touchdowns allowed per game. Chubb is the back who can have more success between the tackles, and his success will help keep the Texans in this game by keeping the Bills offense off the field.
We've seen Chubb have nine or more carries in seven of 10 games played. This total is an overreaction to what we've seen in the past two weeks.
James Cook
More Than 0.5 Touchdowns
We talked about how the Bills are struggling to defend against the rush; meanwhile, the Texans have been excellent against the run. They rank fourth in yards per rush allowed and ninth in rushing touchdowns allowed per game.
However, this tough matchup on paper has created value on James Cook to find paydirt.
Cook's price to score is typically much higher as his usage is elite. He has averaged 18 rushing attempts per game with three of those coming in red zone.
The Bills have a clear preference to run the ball in the red zone, with Cook compiling 29 red-zone rush attempts on the season, while the leading red-zone target leader has just eight targets.
The Bills are going to find their way into the end zone, and Cook is one of the two guys nearly guaranteed to touch the ball to do so tonight.
