NFL Pro Bowl Trends: Are Overs Easy Money for Bettors?
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: AFC players line up to the line of scrimmage in the 2018 NFL Pro Bowl
- The 2019 NFL Pro Bowl Game takes place on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC), offering bettors one final chance to wager on the NFL before Super Bowl 53.
- Using Bet Labs, we identify against-the-spread, moneyline and over/under trends for the Pro Bowl.
I’m not afraid to say it, I’m betting the 2019 Pro Bowl. This does not make me a degenerate. Rather as a bettor who looks for value regardless of the situation, the Pro Bowl is an opportunity to make money before next week’s Super Bowl.
The 2019 NFL Pro Bowl Game takes place on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC) at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. Using the Bet Labs database, I have identified the smartest ways to approach this event.
Of course, sample size is an issue but these are the spread, moneyline and over/under trends bettors need to know before placing a Pro Bowl wager.
Pro Bowl Underdogs
The Pro Bowl is an exhibition game, which means player motivation is questionable. As such, underdogs have been the right play. Since 2004, the team getting points in the Pro Bowl has gone 12-3 against the spread, covering by 6.37 points per game.
Pro Bowl Moneylines
The pooches don’t just cover the spread, they win the game. In the past 14 Pro Bowls, the underdog has won nine times. A $100 bettor wagering on the dogs would have returned a profit of $811 for a 57.9% return on investment.
Pro Bowl Over/Unders
A popular narrative is that the Pro Bowl is all offense and no defense. You wouldn’t be wrong to think this as the games have averaged 68 points since 2004.
But oddsmakers are aware of the high-scoring nature, and have adjusted the over/unders.
The average total from 2004 to 2011 was 62.4 points, but from 2012 to 2018 it increased to 76.1 points. With bookmakers adjusting the line, the over is just 7-8 in the Pro Bowl since 2004.
At the time of publication, no lines have been set for the 2019 Pro Bowl. Check our live odds page for updates.