The New England Patriots (0-0) and Seattle Seahawks (0-0) square off in the NFL Kickoff Game of Week 1. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from Lumen Field in Seattle, Was. The game will broadcast live on NBC/Peacock.
The Seahawks are favored by -3.5 on the spread with the over/under set at 44.5 total points. The Seahawks are -188 favorites to win on the moneyline while the Patriots are +158 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Patriots vs Seahawks predictions and NFL Kickoff Game preview.
Patriots vs Seahawks Prediction
- Patriots vs Seahawks pick: Under 44.5
My Patriots vs Seahawks best bet is the under. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Patriots vs Seahawks Odds
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 +158 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +158 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -188 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -188 |
Patriots vs Seahawks NFL Kickoff Game Preview
When the Patriots Have the Ball
Drake Maye had a remarkable sophomore season, finishing second in MVP voting and leading the Patriots to the Super Bowl. He’s established himself as someone who could potentially become the best QB of the upcoming era if he continues to improve.
However, the Patriots benefited greatly from having by far the easiest schedule last season, enough so to earn the (probably short-term) nickname Drake “The Schedule” Maye. We finally saw what had been a dream season turn into a nightmare in the Super Bowl, when the Patriots lost to the Seahawks 29-13.
Now the Patriots get an immediate rematch to open the 2026 season.
What makes this matchup especially interesting is that we’ve already had a chance to dissect it, while both teams also had two weeks to specifically game plan for each other just a few months ago.
One thing Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald appeared to identify was that Maye struggled against Cover 6. He averaged just 7.4 yards per attempt against Cover 6 last season, ranking 22nd out of 48 qualified QBs, compared to 9.3 Y/A against all other coverages, which ranked first.
Seattle already used Cover 6 at the second-highest rate in the league at 20%, but cranked that up to a whopping 48% in the Super Bowl.
Maye responded with one of his worst games of the season. He was also under constant duress, facing a season-high 52% pressure rate on his dropbacks, which led to him tying a season high with six sacks.
New England tried to bolster its offensive line by adding Alijah Vera-Tucker, who missed the entire 2025 season with a triceps injury. The Patriots also used their first-round pick on Caleb Lomu, who should be able to develop behind RT Morgan Moses this season and presumably replace him down the road.
The Patriots also made the much-anticipated trade with the Eagles for A.J. Brown and added Romeo Doubs in free agency. They lost Stefon Diggs, who was solid for them last season, but this WR room should be much better overall.
Still, this is a brutal opening matchup against a Seattle defense that ranked first in DVOA against both the run and the pass last season.
The Seahawks lost some key pieces in Boye Mafe, Riq Woolen and Coby Bryant. Their second-round pick, Bud Clark, was also expected to potentially become a starting safety as soon as this season before suffering a season-ending injury in the preseason.
That loss could be magnified if Ty Okada, who would be the clear starter with Clark out, has to miss the opener due to the hamstring injury that’s prevented him from practicing. Nick Emmanwori might also be held out as he continues working his way back from ankle surgery in late July.
The statuses of Okada and Emmanwori need to be monitored, but I’m guessing both end up getting held out. That would obviously be a massive blow, but I think the infrastructure of Macdonald’s defense is sound enough to handle a couple of key injuries.
For pretty much the entire 2025 season, the Seahawks secondary was seemingly missing 1-2 of its key players every week. So this is nothing new for them — especially if Seattle’s defensive front is able to generate another high pressure rate against Maye, which I’m guessing it will.
When the Seahawks Have the Ball
A lot of Seattle’s success and Super Bowl win was driven by its elite defense. Again, this wasn’t just the No. 1 defense in overall DVOA. The Seahawks ranked first against both the run and pass, with essentially no weakness.
However, Sam Darnold and the offense were also a top-10 unit, ranking 10th in DVOA. It’s an offense I could actually see improving despite losing Kenneth Walker III in free agency and Zach Charbonnet expected to miss the first four-plus games while working his way back from the ACL tear he suffered in the playoffs.
Seattle spent a first-round pick on Jadarian Price to be its lead back from Day 1. Price didn’t see a ton of work in college because he was backing up Jeremiyah Love at Notre Dame, but Price definitely has the skills to be an efficient runner at the next level.
However, his lack of experience as a pass blocker in college could limit him to early down work initially, which is one of the reasons I’m on his Under 1.5 receptions prop. We could see more of an RB committee than expected with George Holani and Emanuel Wilson mixing in.
The Seahawks traded for Rashid Shaheed last season but struggled to make him a consistent part of the offense. Now they’ve had an entire offseason to figure out how to integrate him.
There is one massive change, though: offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak departed to take the Raiders’ head coach.
In theory, Kubiak’s scheme did an excellent job maximizing the talent on this offense. Seattle constantly played chess with opposing defenses, using unique and oftentimes heavy personnel packages that made it difficult for defenses to know which personnel to counter with.
It allowed Darnold to thrive and helped Jaxon Smith-Njigba emerge as one of the top WRs in the league.
I’m assuming Seattle will want to keep things as similar as possible under new OC Brian Fleury, who comes over from San Francisco, where he was the TEs coach.
However, we’ve seen this plenty of times before. Even if the overall scheme remains similar, it might not get off to a clean start. Sometimes something as subtle as the sequencing of play calls can impact how productive an offense is under a new playcaller.
I think there’s at least a chance this offense regresses more than people expect under a new OC, particularly early in the season.
The Patriots defense ranked 23rd in DVOA last season, although a lot of that is due to them being dinged heavily for their easy schedule. If you exclude the 4-5 game stretch late in the season when they were missing both Milton Williams and Robert Spillane, this was a stingy rush defense.
That could make things tougher on the rookie Price and the rest of Seattle’s backfield.
Meanwhile, top CB Christian Gonzalez — fresh off signing a record-setting extension — will do his best to slow down JSN again after holding him to a very quiet 4/27/0 receiving line in the Super Bowl.
Patriots vs Seahawks Prediction, Betting Analysis
I’m pretty much in line with the spread being Seattle -3.5 at home in the opener. And while I don’t think the total of 44.5 is some ridiculous, wildly mispriced number, I do think the under is the best way to attack the sides/totals market for a Super Bowl rematch that ended 29-13.
Even with some moving pieces and key injuries on Seattle’s defense, I still expect this to be an elite unit and an elite scheme under Mike Macdonald.
The Seahawks seemed to find a blueprint for slowing down Drake Maye while also attacking a vulnerable Patriots offensive line. I don’t see why they can’t use a similar game plan here.
New England added pieces that should make its offense even better this season, but it could take a couple of games for everything to gel. That’s especially worth considering for a team that opted not to play Maye or several other key starters at all during the preseason.
On the other side, Seattle could get off to a slower start offensively while transitioning from Klint Kubiak to Brian Fleury.
I’m not saying Fleury will definitely be a downgrade. After all, he’s also coming from the Shanahan coaching tree and, by all indications, seems like someone who could develop into one of the better OCs in fairly short order.
But I think Kubiak came pretty close to maximizing this Seahawks offense last season given the roster. Even a small step backward due to the change in play caller could matter early in the season.
Both defenses have some moving pieces and key injuries, as most teams do heading into a new season, but these are also two defensive-minded head coaches with sound infrastructure on that side of the ball. Add in the fact that both teams ranked bottom 10 in neutral pace last season, and I think this sets up for a lower-scoring game.
I’m projecting the total closer to 43.5 — and yes, that proves my point that I don’t think 44.5 is WAY off.
But it’s worth pointing out that 43 and 44 remain the two most valuable key numbers for NFL totals. Getting both with Under 44.5 makes this a bit sneakier than the one-point difference between my projection and the market might suggest.
Pick: Under 44.5
Spread
As I stated above, I'm in line with Seahawks opening as 3.5-point home favorites over the Patriots. The Seahawks got to 4.5-point favorites in June, before the line settled back at -3.5.
Moneyline
I have no play for either side of the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have Pats-Seahawks projected at 43.5 so I'm all over the under 44.5.
