NFL Week 7 kicks off with Steelers vs Bengals on Thursday Night Football.
The Steelers enter TNF on a three-game winning streak and in control of the AFC North. The Bengals, meanwhile, are in the midst of a four game-losing streak.
- For more Thursday Night Football coverage, check out my Steelers vs Bengals preview, which includes my betting pick for TNF.
Tonight, I'm targeting Jaylen Warren in the prop market as I suspect the Steelers' running back has a favorable matchup against a leaky Bengals defense. Find my over/under prop bet for Warren below.
NFL Prop Bet: Jaylen Warren Over/Under Prediction
I realize this is a prop that 99% of people are already on the over for. Usually, I can pinpoint a few overlooked angles the public is missing, but this one is simply a number I think is a bit too low based on the matchup.
The Bengals have allowed seven running backs to clear this number this season, and they struggle badly allowing yards after the catch. They’ve allowed a league-high +1.12 yards after the catch over expected per reception, making them prone to chunk gains to running backs in space.
With EDGE Trey Hendrickson looking closer to doubtful to play, this could be the cleanest pocket Aaron Rodgers has had all year.
Warren’s target rate jumps from 20% per route run to 39% when Rodgers has a clean pocket. Rodgers is far more willing to check down in those situations and let Warren work in space.
I also think Rodgers’ passing yards prop is too low in general since all of his pass-catchers excel after the catch — but the one offering the most value is Warren.
I have his median closer to 21.5 with around a 61% chance to clear 16.5 yards.
