The Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) and Cincinnati Bengals (2-4) meet in the Week 7 edition of Thursday Night Football on October 16. Kickoff for TNF is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. The game will broadcast on Prime Video.
The Steelers are favored by -5.5 on the spread over the Bengals (Steelers -5.5); the over/under is 44.5 points. Pittsburgh is a -260 favorite to win on the moneyline while Cincinnati is +210 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Thursday Night Football preview and Steelers vs. Bengals prediction.
Steelers vs Bengals Prediction
- Steelers vs Bengals pick: Over 44.5 (-110)
My Steelers vs Bengals best bet is the game total to go over. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Steelers vs Bengals Odds
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -260 |
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
Steelers vs Bengals Thursday Night Football Preview
When the Steelers Have the Ball
This installment of Thursday Night Football has been dubbed the "Icy Hot Bowl" as we get 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers against 40-year-old Joe Flacco.
Rodgers has bounced back after a disappointing season with the Jets, when he finished 22nd out of 35 qualified QBs in EPA/play. He’s now up to 16th, which is right around league average.
Rodgers is clearly not going to revert to his peak Packers-era form; he has been playing extremely conservatively so far, throwing deep at a career-low rate with a league-low average depth of target of just 5.4 yards downfield. He is relying on his receivers to rack up yards after the catch.
The Bengals have allowed a league-high +1.12 yards over expected after the catch per reception, making this the perfect matchup for Rodgers to let his pass-catchers do the work.
This matchup could get significantly easier if EDGE Trey Hendrickson can't play through his hip injury on a short week (he was a DNP Monday-Wednesday and is listed as questionable).
Hendrickson's absence would be massive as he is the Bengals' main source for generating pressure. Without him, Rodgers could have the cleanest pocket he has seen all season.
That would be key considering Rodgers ranks 27th out of 34 QBs in EPA/dropback under pressure, but jumps to 12th from a clean pocket. Hendrickson’s status has a massive impact on the side and total. Cincinnati ranks 30th in defensive DVOA and can't afford to lose its best defensive player.
There are a couple of things working against Pittsburgh here.
Head coach Mike Tomlin has struggled as a road favorite after coming off a win, going just 15-31 against the spread (ATS) in those spots. He has a tendency to cover when people are low on the Steelers and they are a home underdog.
I usually avoid leaning heavily on trends since they can stem from small sample sizes and are often already baked into the market. Either way, this is the type of matchup where the public expects the Steelers to win and they often disappoint.
Rodgers also faces the Packers next week, and you know he has circled that as his most meaningful game of the season. He could come out flat on a short week while looking ahead, but I still expect him to have one of the cleanest pockets he has seen all year and an easy matchup on paper.
When the Bengals Have the Ball
Joe Flacco was traded to Cincinnati early last week and started despite having only one week to learn the offense.
Flacco's +0.04 EPA/dropback was higher than Jake Browning’s -0.44 and even Joe Burrow’s -0.12 on the season. It was even more impressive given the matchup came against a Packers defense ranked second in DVOA against the pass.
Flacco should only improve as he gets more practice and chemistry with his new team, and he has one of the best WR duos in the league in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
This is another tough matchup as the Steelers rank seventh in pass defense DVOA. The Bengals' run game has struggled (30th in DVOA), so Flacco will not be able to lean on the ground game the way he could with Quinshon Judkins in Cleveland.
However, we have seen Flacco thrive in extreme pass-heavy environments over the last few years. Flacco always carries a wide range of outcomes, and being in an offense he has known for only a week-plus makes this game even harder to project.
Steelers vs Bengals Prediction, Betting Analysis
The "Icy Hot Bowl" could end up being higher scoring than the market suggests.
As I noted, Rodgers could have a much cleaner pocket than usual, especially if Hendrickson is out or limited. His status is worth monitoring, and I would recommend waiting for final confirmation.
Regardless, Rodgers’ reliance on his skill players to get yards after the catch gets a big boost against this Bengals defense.
On the other side, the Bengals offense may have some life with Flacco at QB now that he has one game under his belt. When Flacco drops back a lot, the range of outcomes is wide, but most of those outcomes tend to help the over.
Weather should be perfect for Thursday night with only two mph winds expected in Cincinnati.
Pick: Over 44.5
Spread
I have no pick for either side of the spread. Again, it's worth monitoring the status of Trey Hendrickson if you're interested in taking a side.
Moneyline
I have no pick for either moneyline.
Over/Under
Over 44.5 is my bet for this game.
