NFL playoff action on Monday night features the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card Round.
The Texans enter the playoffs on a nine-game winning streak while the Steelers eked out a win over the Ravens in Week 18 to win the AFC North.
- For more NFL Wild Card betting coverage, check out our Texans vs Steelers preview, which includes four picks — including my anytime touchdown prop — for tonight's AFC showdown.
Tonight, I'm targeting Steelers RB Jaylen Warren in the prop market as I believe there's an edge on his rushing attempts prop. Find my over/under prop bet for Warren below.
NFL Prop Bet: Jaylen Warren Over/Under Prediction
Steelers running back Jaylen Warren has numerous factors that cap his ceiling in the rush attempts prop market tonight.
The Steelers are 3-point home underdogs, which projects them to trail around at a 10% higher rate than their season average, potentially lowering their overall rushing volume. Fellow RB Kenneth Gainwell also tends to see an increase in playing time in trailing game scripts, and using both backs in the passing game could be a more efficient version, or extension, of the run game against a stingy Texans defense.
Not only does Gainwell mix in a ton, but we’ve also seen the Steelers give Jonnu Smith 1-2 designed rush attempts per game, and in short-yardage situations they use Connor Heyward in their version of the tush push. That’s another sneaky reason why I like fading Warren in this specific market, since he’s not going to rack up many cheap rush attempts in short-yardage situations.
I’m projecting Warren closer to 12.4 carries with around a 62% chance to stay under. If this moves down to 12.5, I still think there’s enough downside in this market to feel good about taking under 12.5 at anything better than roughly -120.
Pick: Jaylen Warren Under 13.5 Rush Attempts (-127); bet to Under 12.5 (-120 or better)
