We made it through the chaos of the opening week of the NFL regular season, and despite the typical early season roller coaster, we came out sitting pretty.
Thanks to the Malik Willis escalator and nice Chris Olave and Vikings hits, we finished the opening week up about 6.5 units.
NFL Week 2 is overreaction season. It is time to trust our priors, play the numbers, and build some escalators.
Let's get into my NFL Week 2 Mega Preview, as well as a lookahead bet for next week.
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NFL Week 2 Props & Same-Game Parlays
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Bengals vs Texans
This is one of the best games on Sunday right off the top.
While Jaguars–Broncos is fascinating, Texans–Bengals is going to give us a very clear shape of the AFC.
This matchup is strength-on-strength and weakness-on-weakness. Can Cincinnati's offensive line handle Houston's pressure? Can Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins beat DeMeco Ryans' outstanding man-to-man coverage?
I don't have a great answer for the side here. Ryans is the worst active coach against the spread (ATS) in the first three games of the season (1-9 ATS), and Joe Burrow is always dangerous as an underdog.
Instead of messing with the spread, I'm going back to Old Faithful: fading the Bengals defense with a tight end.
Cincinnati allowed the most tight end fantasy points in the league in each of the last two seasons, and we are going right back to the well with Dalton Schultz.
Schultz is a target monster for Houston. He saw eight targets in Week 1 and has been second in targets behind only Nico Collins the last two years. I liked this prop before the news that Collins was dealing with a hamstring issue, and now I love it even more.
Schultz is C.J. Stroud’s security blanket, and he should feast on these bad Cincinnati linebackers.
Unlike last week's Cade Otton play, Schultz is a fantastic median outcome target. He had three or more catches in all but two games last year, meaning his floor is just one catch away from hitting this standard over.
The Bengals allowed four catches to a tight end 14 times last year and five catches 10 times. Schultz hit six catches in 35% of his games last season, including games with 7, 7, 8, and 9 receptions.
The Bengals allowed 8+ TE catches five times the last two seasons, including two 10s.
We're taking this escalator all the way to the top.
The bet: Dalton Schultz Over 3.5 Receptions (-120 at bet365)
Escalator bets: Schultz 5+ Receptions (+180 at bet365) / 6+ Receptions (+375 at bet365) / 7+ Receptions (+675 at bet365) / 8+ Receptions (+1100 at bet365) / 9+ Receptions (+1840 at DraftKings) / 10+ Receptions (+2800 at DraftKings)
Saints vs Ravens
The Ravens were the most impressive team I watched in Week 1. Declan Doyle’s offense is firing on all cylinders.
Lamar Jackson was under center for 67% of his snaps, the highest rate of his career. That opened up a highly creative run game and massive explosive plays for this offense. Baltimore dropped 31 points by halftime last week on touchdown drives of just 3, 6, 5, and 3 plays.
I make this line Ravens -10. They are just way better at everything. But I want to isolate the first half to avoid any backdoor nonsense late in the game.
We get Ravens -5.5 in the first half, which ducks the key numbers of six and seven. The Saints failed to cover a first-half line of 5.5 in over half their games last year. Meanwhile, Jackson is a legendary first-half cover machine at 60% ATS for his career.
It gets even worse for New Orleans early: the Saints haven't won a first quarter since 2024. They are an abysmal 2-16 ATS in the first quarter over their last 18 games. We can grab Ravens -2.5 in the first quarter and dodge the key number of -3.
If Baltimore explodes again, it will likely be because of their offense, so we are throwing in a first-half team total over and an alternate first-half spread to complete the escalator.
The bets: Ravens 1H -5.5 (-108 at DraftKings) / Ravens 1Q -2.5 (FanDuel)
Escalator bets: Ravens 1H -9.5 (+162 at FanDuel) / Ravens 1H Team Total Over 20.5 (+490 at FanDuel)
Eagles vs Titans
I desperately searched for a Deshaun Watson mineshaft this week because this might be our last chance to bet against him before he gets benched, but I just couldn't find the right angle.
Instead, we are pivoting to an ugly Eagles–Titans under. There were very few offenses I was less impressed with in Week 1 than these two.
Until a garbage-time drive to end the game, the Titans accumulated just 130 yards on 40 plays (3.25 yards per play) with only six first downs. Brian Daboll's game plan was baffling, opting for a 78% shotgun rate on early downs. It looked completely rudderless.
The Eagles weren't much better. They had four scoring drives against Washington, and each one relied entirely on a single explosive chunk play. Outside of those four big plays, Philadelphia tallied just 99 yards on 50 plays, under two yards a play.
Sean Mannion’s new overhyped offense threw exactly two passes over the middle of the field. Now G Landon Dickerson is on IR, and the offensive line is struggling to create running lanes.
The one reliable unit in this game is the Eagles defense. Tennessee has a bottom-five offensive line that's in big trouble against the Philadelphia front seven.
Robert Saleh totals under 44 hit at a 59% clip, and Week 2 unders between 30 and 40 points hit at 67%.
I like the under. Even if the Eagles offense hits, we could still hit with something like a 31-7 Philly win.
But if we are projecting a game to go under 39.5, we have to consider the team catching a full touchdown on the spread.
Since 2014, Week 2 underdogs of 3-7 points that failed to cover in Week 1 are 45-19-2 ATS (70%). Even crazier, home dogs of 7+ points in the first eight games of the season the last couple decades are an absurd 19-2-2 ATS (90%).
I think we are in for a low-scoring, ugly game, and I'll correlate it with the Titans keeping it within seven.
The bet: Under 39.5 (If you grabbed 40.5 in the app earlier, even better)
SGP: Under 39.5 & Titans +7 (+270 at Fanatics)
Vikings vs Bears
I really wanted to take the Bears team total over. Ben Johnson's offenses absolutely shred Brian Flores' defenses, pinpointing the weak spot left open by the blitz.
In nine matchups against Flores, Johnson's offenses are averaging 28.0 points per game, eclipsing that number six times.
However, the Vikings have won eight of their last 10 against the Bears, including six straight in Chicago. Add in 15 mph winds and a total that has already inflated by three or four since the weekend, and I have to pass.
But I still want some piece of an over in a Bears game, so I will just target the best wide receiver on the planet: Justin Jefferson.
It is amazing how Jefferson magically became great again the second J.J. McCarthy was exiled to the moon.
Jefferson averages an NFL-record 90 yards per game in his career. In 10 games with McCarthy, he averaged 54 yards. With literally everyone else? 95 yards per game.
It looks like Carson Wentz should start this week, and Jefferson has hit the over on this line in all six games with Wentz, commanding a 32% target share and 44% of the air yards.
The Bears allowed 74+ yards to a receiver 13 times last year, then twice last week against Carolina.
Keep it simple.
The bet: Justin Jefferson Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-113 at DraftKings)
Steelers vs Patriots
Everyone saw how ugly Pittsburgh looked last week, and my numbers say this line should be -3.5. The truth is both of these offenses are rough right now.
The Patriots' offensive weapons are in the hospital. A.J. Brown is a huge miss, and what looked like a top-10 WR corps before the season is now bottom-10 until proven otherwise.
New England probably won't run the ball well on Pittsburgh, so it's on Drake Maye's shoulders — but who is he throwing to?
The Patriots also lack the pass rush necessary to bother Aaron Rodgers, which is the key to stopping this Pittsburgh offense, and the Steelers' line should open up some running lanes.
I make this moneyline around +160, so getting it at +210 is good value, and a better value than +5.5 from +3.5 passing non-key numbers.
I'd like it a lot more if Mike Tomlin were still coaching because Mike McCarthy's faster, pass-heavy scheme isn't as conducive to grinding out upsets, but I am going to trust my numbers, take a nibble, and pay to find out.
The bet: Steelers Moneyline (+210 at bet365)
Panthers vs Falcons
I really want to back Falcons +2.5.
I actually make Atlanta a two-point favorite, even if Cooper Rush is under center. There is no logical reason Carolina should be a road favorite other than residual respect from its fake division title last year at 8-9.
However, Atlanta is dealing with a bunch of injuries.
Elite guard Chris Lindstrom is in concussion protocol, and their top corner A.J. Terrell might not play. The fact that the books are holding this line steady at Carolina -2.5 hints at bad injury news for Atlanta.
Instead, I am looking at the history of this gross NFC South rivalry.
These teams split their season series five straight times until Carolina swept last year — with one of those games going to overtime. Eight of those 12 matchups have been within one score, and three of the last eight have gone to overtime.
It always feels close, ugly, and drawn out.
These are strictly -EV long-shot sprinkles, just for fun. Overtime is listed at 12-1, and a Tie is 100-1. There have only been seven ties in 118 overtime games since the NFL switched to the 10-minute overtime rule.
It is the grossest, stupidest outcome possible … so doesn't that feel like exactly what should happen in a Panthers-Falcons game?
The bets: Game to go to Overtime (+1200 at DraftKings) / Game to end in a Tie (+10000 at bet365)
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Jaguars vs Broncos
This might be the most interesting game of the week. Are the Jaguars really as awesome as they looked against Cleveland? Are the Broncos truly as terrible as they seemed on Monday night in Kansas City?
I'm intrigued by Jacksonville, but the offensive line wasn't great, even in a blowout. How does that unit hold up against this Denver pass rush, and can Trevor Lawrence pass on an outstanding secondary? He did just fine late last season in Denver, racking up four TDs.
My key read on this game, however, has nothing to do with picking a side.
Both of these teams boasted top-five run defenses last year. Opponents simply couldn’t run on them, and eventually they stopped trying.
When the Jaguars and Broncos met last season, they combined for 95 pass plays and just 41 runs — a 70% pass rate.
Denver allowed the sixth-most passing attempts in the league last year, and Jacksonville allowed the most (37.4 per game).
Bo Nix threw only 28 times on Monday night, but remember, he also took four sacks and fumbled three times. This offense was still at a 70% pass rate.
We are building our first ever passing attempts escalator. Nix's line is sitting at 32.5, and it looks badly underpriced.
He had 34+ attempts in 11-of-17 games last year, and Jacksonville allowed 33+ attempts in 15-of-17 games (88%). The Jaguars actually allowed 38+ passing attempts in over half of their games, and Nix was at 37+ in 10-of-17 with three games of 45+, including that Jaguars game.
Bo Nix passing escalator to the moon.
The bet: Bo Nix Over 32.5 Passing Attempts (-115 at bet365)
Escalator bets: Nix 38+ Attempts (+212 at DraftKings) / 40+ Attempts (+400 at bet365) / 45+ Attempts (+950 at bet365) / 48+ Attempts (+1600 at DraftKings)
Cowboys vs Commanders
This is the easiest spread play of the week for me.
I make this closer to Dallas -5.5 or -6. Washington is getting slightly overrated in the market because it hung around against a mediocre Eagles team, while the Cowboys are being downgraded after an ugly primetime loss to a Giants squad that may actually be decent.
Yes, the Dallas defense looked awful last week, but Washington is not the team to exploit it. The Commanders have a bottom-five offensive line and no real rushing attack. Dallas interior defensive linemen Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark should dominate the trenches.
Jayden Daniels is going to have to do everything himself, and that just isn't going to be enough.
On the other side, the Klayton Adams offense that everyone loved coming into the season is going to get right in this spot. The Cowboys offense was actually fine last week; their defense just couldn't get off the field, limiting them to six possessions.
Washington has a bottom-five defense that gave up chunk plays to a struggling Philadelphia offense, and Dallas could hang a crooked number on this team.
Dak Prescott as a division favorite of a field goal or more is 25-10 ATS (71%) in his career, covering by an average of 6.7 points per game. And many of those big covers have come against the Commanders.
When Dallas plays Washington, it's rarely close. Over the last 15 matchups, nine have been decided by 15+ points, and over half have been 20+ point blowouts.
I am not intimidated by this number, and we are going to play the rivalry history and bet alts too.
The bet: Cowboys -3.5 (FanDuel)
Alt Lines: Cowboys -13.5 (+360 at FanDuel) / Cowboys -19.5 (+700 at FanDuel)
Dolphins vs 49ers
I won't even pretend to make a football case for the Dolphins. Miami looked abhorrent last week. This is strictly a numbers, trends, and spot play.
The 49ers are returning from a full week in Australia, and we don't truly know how that body clock adjustment is going to affect them.
Kyle Shanahan's teams notoriously play with their food and struggle to blow out bad teams. The Niners only covered a 14-point spread four times over the last two seasons.
Before Week 1, this line was sitting at 10.5. It has moved three full points based on one week of results. That is an overreaction.
Week 2 road 'dogs coming off a double-digit loss hit at an 83% rate. Teams that win by 17+ in Week 1 as underdogs of a touchdown or less (like the 49ers just did) are an ugly 3-15 ATS (17%) in Week 2.
I have no idea how we get there — a key Dolphins special teams play, a sloppy Niners mistake, maybe a backdoor garbage-time touchdown — I don't care.
Just give me the points.
The bet: Dolphins +13.5
Colts vs Chiefs
This is a classic buy-low, sell-high spot with a heap of trends in our favor.
We just watched the Chiefs demolish a fraudulent Broncos team on Monday night, while the Colts were crushed by a Ravens squad that might be the best team in the NFL.
Denver's run defense got bulldozed by Kansas City, but the Colts typically have a solid run defense. Indy got picked apart in the passing game last week, but sadly, Kansas City is no longer built to beat teams that way.
The Chiefs don't have the receivers to run it up through the air anymore. The Colts will likely run the ball, control the clock, and drag this into a slow, grind-it-out game.
Kansas City is not built for blowouts anymore; the Chiefs have won by more than one score only nine times the last two years.
The historical trends also favor the Colts. Week 2 trends are in Indy's favor:
- Road 'dogs coming off a double-digit loss are 83% ATS since 2014
- 'Dogs of 3-to-7 points that failed to cover in Week 1 are 70% ATS since 2014
- Favorites playing a second straight home game cover at just a 30% rate
The player- and coach-specific trends also like Indianapolis:
- Patrick Mahomes as a favorite of more than three points is just 43% ATS
- Daniel Jones as a road underdog is 66% ATS
- Shane Steichen is 7-3 ATS the first three weeks of the season
Any time a team that just won by 17+ faces a team that just lost by 17+ points, history says it's a good idea to back the losing side, which covers at 59% ATS.
Wait for the +7 to pop back up if you can, but +6.5 is fine as needed.
The bet: Colts +6.5
Week 3 Lookahead: Falcons vs Packers
As always, the goal of the Lookahead is to get ahead of the market before Sunday's results shift the numbers.
We are targeting the Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 3.
We talked above about the boatload of injuries Atlanta is facing: Chris Lindstrom, A.J. Terrell, and a total unknown at quarterback. If those guys don't play on Sunday, they are unlikely to turn around and play on a short week by Thursday.
The Falcons appear to be tanking, and I doubt they rush their best players back to the field. If those players are out, I make this line Packers -8.
Green Bay will either be riding high with public faith restored after beating the Jets, or the Packers will be a desperate 0-2 team playing to save their season.
Atlanta has no pass rush to expose Green Bay's bad offensive line, and Jordan Love should pick apart a depleted secondary.
Matt LaFleur is a ridiculous 17-5 ATS in the first three weeks of the season — the best mark of any coach in our BetLabs database.
We are ducking the key numbers of six and seven right now.
I doubt this line stays below -6 by the time Thursday rolls around.
Week 3 Lookahead Pick: Packers -5.5 (FanDuel)
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