Action Network's Predictive Analytics team crunched the numbers and came up with five NFL predictions for Week 2 of the 2026 season.
The data-driven NFL picks for Week 2 include games featuring Panthers vs Falcons, Browns vs Buccaneers, Jaguars vs Broncos, and Colts vs Chiefs, plus a round robin.
NFL Week 2 Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
 | Sun. 1 p.m. – Mon. 8:15 | |
  | 8:20 p.m. |
Highest Scoring Team, Game Picks
By Billy Ward
These are both very long-shot picks for my favorite Sunday markets, with the Panthers/Falcons game featuring just a 43.5 total, a full touchdown lower than the 50.5 in Commanders/Cowboys.
However, I’m not sure the lines should be anywhere near this long. The Panthers allowed a Week 1-record 59 points in Week 1, which aligned with Brandon Anderson’s rankings of them as the 29th-best defense in the league heading into the season.
Yes, that was against an explosive Bears offense, but five of those touchdowns were on the ground, and Atlanta might have the best pure running back in the NFL in Bijan Robinson, plus a similarly strong offensive line as the Bears.
That’s the case for the Falcons specifically, who check in with 35-to-1 odds while being the underdog in their own game.
The case for the game is based on the Falcons' defense also being bad. They allowed just 20 points last week to the Steelers, but I’m not sold on Pittsburgh’s offense, and Anderson had the Falcons ranked one spot below Carolina in his defensive rankings before the season.
The Panthers offense looked solid against a tougher opponent in the Bears, though that was, of course, partially due to chasing points when playing with a big deficit most of the game.
The big concern for me here is the pace, with both teams playing somewhat slower than expected based on the game script of their Week 1 games. That’s an acceptable risk at this price, though, as some explosive runs from either team could force the other team to play catch up, speeding things up.
Robinson to finish with the most rushing yards (+750 DraftKings) is another way to play this angle that’s more likely to hit, but obviously less rewarding.
Picks:
- Highest Scoring Team on Sunday: Atlanta Falcons +3500 (BetMGM)
- Highest Scoring Game on Sunday: Panthers/Falcons +1300 (BetMGM)
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First Team to Record a Sack and First Turnover Committed Pick
By Billy Ward
These “first team to X” markets are tricky early in the season, especially when the logic is based somewhat on whether a team opts to receive the opening kickoff.
Interestingly, both the Browns and the Bucs won the opening coin flip in Week 1 and chose to receive the ball.
With that said, Tampa Bay has the same coaching staff as last year, when it deferred on all kickoff wins. Cleveland now has Todd Monken calling the shots, so it’s plausible that this is part of their plan moving forward.
More importantly is the QB situation for both teams.
Yes, Baker Mayfield is mistake-prone – but he’s no Deshaun Watson, who replaced him in Cleveland in one of the worst trades/contracts in history. Watson took five sacks and threw a turnover last week behind possibly the league’s worst offensive line.
While Mayfield had his own issues, the Browns' defensive front doesn’t look to be much of a threat post-Myles Garrett, and the Bucs' offensive line is one of the league’s best units.
These lines would probably be a value even if we thought the Buccaneers more likely to start with the ball, and they’re great picks if we think the opposite is more likely.
Pick:
- First Turnover Committed — Cleveland (-110, DraftKings)
- First Team to Record a Sack — Tampa Bay (-130, Caesars)
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Team to Record First Sack
By Nick Giffen
Liam Coen and the Jaguars chose to receive 5-of-11 coin tosses they won last year, while Sean Payton chose to receive just 1-of-9. Those trends make Jacksonville more likely to start with the ball, around 60/40 by my estimates.
But the more telling thing is the sack projection for each QB.
From my Luck Rankings Dashboard, Bo Nix projects for just 1.46 sacks, while Lawrence projects for more than a full sack extra at 2.51.
It makes sense too: Nix has taken just 52 sacks in 37 career games for 1.41 per game. Lawrence, meanwhile, took 42 just last year in 18 games, so the market is probably underestimating his sack potential after a one-sack game against the lowly Browns.
The Broncos should be heavy favorites here – and at DraftKings they are, going for a price of -195.
It pays to shop around.
Pick:
- Team to Record First Sack – Denver (-115)
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Team to Record First Sack Round Robin
By Nick Giffen
In addition to the Broncos listed above, there are several other bets showing value for me based on my sack projections.
So, like last week when we went 4-for-6 on the game total sacks Round Robin, I’m going back to a sack round robin, but this time for a team to record the first sack.
All of these are showing a 10%+ EV by my Luck Rankings Dashboard sack projections.
- DEN -115 vs JAX
- GB -115 vs NYJ
- PIT -115 vs NE
- LAR -110 vs NYG
- SEA -120 vs ARI
- ATL -115 vs CAR
Pick: Team to Record First Sack Round Robin
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Sunday Night Football — Team to Score First
By Billy Ward
The Colts were the most reliable team last season in terms of taking the ball first when winning the coin flip, with six total instances. They picked up right where they left off this season, choosing to receive the ball first in Week 1 – and scoring the first touchdown of the day on Sunday.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, take a more standard approach of nearly always deferring.
Unfortunately, DraftKings seems to have given up on the “first team to record a first down” market, and both teams are solid enough on offense that betting on a sack and/or turnover feels a bit risky.
Instead, we’ll hope the Colts can at least muster a field goal on the opening drive, or stop the Chiefs and score on the third (or fifth, etc.) drive of the game.
The fact that they’re significant underdogs makes this less comfortable, but I’d still favor Indy to get the first points if I were setting the lines.
Picks: Team to Score First — Colts
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