Week 2 of the NFL season is officially underway, and our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, has locked in a total of nine NFL prop bets for Sunday featuring picks for Vikings vs. Bears, Steelers vs. Patriots, Jaguars vs. Broncos, and more.
Let's get into his NFL Week 2 player props for Sunday, September 20.
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NFL Player Props Week 2
- Josh Oliver Over 1.5 Receptions (+121, DraftKings)
- Cooper Rush Under 18.5 Completions (-125, DraftKings)
- Roman Wilson Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel)
- Chris Brooks Over 7.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel)
- Matthew Hibner Anytime TD (+1800, DraftKings)
- Zack Baun Under 8.5 Tackles + Assists (-136, DraftKings)
- Azeez Al-Shaair Under 8.5 Tackles + Assists (-110, DraftKings)
- Chris Godwin Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-125, BetMGM)
- Courtland Sutton Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110, DraftKings)
Josh Oliver Receptions
Josh Oliver went 2/22/0 in Week 1, but could’ve easily finished with 3-4 catches. He was targeted on 4 of 9 routes, a ridiculous 44% target rate, and actually led the team with a 26% first-read rate.
So, Carson Wentz was clearly looking his way, and the 50% catch rate came in well below his 73% expected catch rate.
With the potential for rain and wind in the forecast, I could see Wentz leaning on Oliver underneath again.
Jauan Jennings being out could also push them into more 12 personnel rather than simply giving all of his snaps to Tai Felton and Myles Price, which would create more routes for Oliver.
I have him projected closer to 1.9 receptions with around a 60% chance to clear 1.5.
Cooper Rush Completions
Going back to the well after Cooper Rush was predictably awful in Week 1. Atlanta is sticking with him as the starter in what should be a very winnable game against Carolina, and I still expect them to be extremely run heavy after posting a ridiculous league-low -18.5% PROE last week.
The matchup also helps. Pittsburgh blitzed Rush on just 8% of his dropbacks, while Carolina should send extra rushers much more often.
Throughout his career, Rush has tended to push the ball farther downfield against the blitz. That can help this under by lowering his completion rate, but even when he connects, chunk plays shorten the field and reduce the number of completions needed on a drive.
If Atlanta is playing with a lead, that also makes it even easier for them to lean back into the run.
The really interesting part is how volatile this QB situation could be. The obvious way this goes over is Atlanta falling behind by multiple scores and Rush getting forced into a ton of volume.
But if that happens because Rush is struggling again, I think there’s a very real chance the home crowd turns on him quickly.
We could easily hear boos, maybe even Jack Strand chants, and that could put some pressure on Stefanski to make a mid-game change.
That gives us a pretty valuable out against the exact game script that would normally be worst for this under.
I have Rush closer to 18 completions with around a 58% chance to stay under, but I think the true hit rate is a little higher because of that benching path. It’s hard to put an exact number on something that subjective, but that’s also the kind of non-math angle I want to layer into the projection rather than just blindly trusting the model.
I’d definitely prefer 18.5 because every completion is worth a lot on a number this low, but I’d still be OK at 17.5 because Rush has a much lower floor than most starting QBs given how volatile this situation is.
Roman Wilson Receiving Yards
I was waiting for Michael Pittman to officially be ruled out, and now that it is official, this feels like a great spot for a Roman Wilson breakout game. He only went 3/26/0 in Week 1, but he was really close to hitting on a couple much bigger plays.
Pittsburgh also never had to push that hard against Atlanta, while I expect them to throw more here.
Christian Gonzalez should spend plenty of time on DK Metcalf, and Carlton Davis is questionable with a neck injury, so Wilson could end up with a pretty favorable setup.
This just feels like an excellent buy-low spot. Wilson should see more playing time, Rodgers seems to trust him, and he’s willing to push the ball downfield to him. That’s important because Wilson doesn’t need huge volume to clear this due to big play upside.
It may rain during the game, but lighter winds, which should still make it possible for 1-2 big plays.
I have him closer to 37.5 receiving yards with around a 60% chance to clear 30.5, and I think this is a good spot to attack some alt overs as well.
Chris Brooks Receiving Yards
This is a sneaky Week 2 buy-low after neither Packers RB caught a pass in Week 1 on just one target each. Brian Flores blitzed at an insane 78% rate, which forced Green Bay’s backs to stay in and block far more than usual.
Chris Brooks was clearly the passing-down back while Lloyd handled more of the early-down work, but Brooks stayed in to block on 67% of his pass snaps and only ran a route on 33%.
For perspective, Packers RBs ran routes on roughly 73% of pass plays last year and stayed in to block around 22% of the time.
I’m simply expecting Brooks to run routes much more often here, even if Green Bay’s overall passing volume comes down.
I also prefer Over 7.5 yards to Over 1.5 receptions because the routes he was running weren’t just cheap check-downs. On one play, Jayden Reed lined up in the backfield while Brooks split out wide and ran an out route in the end zone.
I think Brooks has a better chance of clearing this on one catch than he does catching 2+ balls and somehow staying under 7.5.
I have him closer to 10.5 receiving yards with around a 60% chance to clear 7.5. Pretty classic Week 2 buy-low after the Week 1 box score shows a zero.
Matthew Hibner Anytime TD
There's way too much sneaky upside here for me not to take a flier at 18/1.
Baltimore took Matt Hibner in the fourth round, and he profiles as more of a pass-catching TE who could eventually grow into the old Isaiah Likely role, with Durham Smythe handling more of the blocking/Charlie Kolar-type work.
Hibner is still raw, but he’s a good athlete for the position and my comp for him coming out was Mike Gesicki.
He only ran a route on 17% of dropbacks in Week 1, but two of those routes came in the red zone. On one, he caught a 13-yard pass and got pushed out inside the 5. Later on that same drive, he ran into the end zone on the play where Smythe was targeted.
With Zay Flowers out, I could see Baltimore leaning into more heavy TE personnel, which gives Hibner a little more opportunity.
Defenses already have so much to account for near the goal line with Lamar and Derrick Henry that a player like Hibner can absolutely benefit from a busted assignment.
I also think Hibner has enough juice to eventually score from outside the red zone too.
This is more about taking the number before the market catches up. I project him closer to 10/1, so I’m happy to take a shot at +1800 before he scores his first one and this price disappears.
Zack Baun Tackles + Assists
Zack Baun is coming off a monster 12-tackle game, but Washington basically spoon-fed him the perfect LB environment with 32 rush attempts, and he got involved on nine of them.
Now he gets the Titans, and that offense is ass (in general) for LB tackle props. Cam Ward and company simply don’t sustain enough offense or create enough quality run volume to consistently feed opposing linebackers.
That matters for Baun, who only cleared 9+ tackles in 31% of games last year even with a pretty favorable schedule for tackle opportunities.
This number looks about a full tackle too high to me. I make Under 8.5 closer to -200, and even Under 7.5 would still shade under around -110.
Azeez Al-Shaair Tackles + Assists
Nothing too interesting here, I just think it’s a bad number. Azeez Al-Shaair only cleared 8.5 tackles + assists in 20% of his (full) games last year.
Houston should face more overall volume after getting shredded by Buffalo last week, but Cincinnati is a worse matchup for LB tackles.
The Bills are one of the better offenses for feeding linebackers opportunities, while the Bengals should pull his tackle rate back down.
I have Al-Shaair closer to 7.7 tackles + assists with around a 62% chance to stay under 8.5.
Sometimes the boring ones are the best ones.
(I was considering Barrett Carter Over 7.5. You can parlay that or use as a 2-pack on PrizePicks since the two correlate nicely)
Chris Godwin Receiving Yards
Chris Godwin is a pretty clean sell-high after barely getting there with 4/40/0 last week. He struggled to separate, saw just a 13% target rate, and 39 of his 40 yards came after the catch because most of his looks were right around the line of scrimmage.
That’s why I prefer fading the yardage instead of receptions. If this role sticks, he’s going to need a lot of catches to get there. If Tampa starts pushing his targets farther downfield, his catch rate should come down.
Either way, I think his floor is a little shakier in this market than the Week 1 box score suggests.
The Bucs also couldn’t get the run game going last week, and I expect much more rushing volume here. Jalen McMillan could return, which would only add more competition, and the weather/game script both point toward Tampa being able to lean on the run more.
I have Godwin closer to 35.5 yards with around a 62% chance to stay under 42.5.
Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards
Not every Week 2 bet needs to be a buy low or sell high. This is basically a sell low after Courtland Sutton went just 2/11/0, but there are enough underlying concerns that I’m still fading him.
Pat Bryant carried all the offseason hype into Week 1 with a 32% target rate and team-high 26% first-read rate, and I don’t expect that to disappear.
Jaylen Waddle should also be due for some squeaky-wheel treatment after a quiet opener, especially as the big offseason addition.
Evan Engram also had a much bigger role than usual, which could be one of the early wrinkles from Davis Webb calling plays.
Sutton could absolutely bounce back, but there are a lot of mouths to feed, and I also expect Denver to get the run game going more this week.
I’d normally look at Under 3.5 receptions, but with how low Nix’s aDOT was and how willing he was to hit Sutton underneath, I’d rather fade the yardage.
I have Sutton’s median closer to 37.5 receiving yards with around a 60% chance to stay under 42.5.
