The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) host the Houston Texans (12-5) tonight in the NFL Wild Card Round. Kickoff from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pa., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Texans vs Steelers will broadcast on ESPN and ABC.
The Texans are 3-point favorites on the spread (Texans -3; -105); the game total is 38.5 (-105o / -115u). Houston is a -164 favorite on the moneyline; Pittsburgh is a +138 underdog.
Below, you can find Texans vs Steelers predictions and Wild Card picks, which include the spread and props for Woody Marks and Pat Freiermuth.
Texans vs Steelers Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texans vs Steelers Odds, Lines
| Houston Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 38.5 -105o / -115u | -164 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 38.5 -105o / -115u | +138 |
Texans vs Steelers Against the Spread Prediction
By Billy Ward
The Steelers probably shouldn’t be a playoff team, going 10-7 but with just +10 net points on the season, while playing six games against the Ravens, Bengals (without Joe Burrow) and Browns in six of their games.
The Texans went 12-5 in a comparable, if not tougher, division in the AFC South, and finished with +109 net points on the season. They’ve also played much better football down the stretch, and haven’t lost a game since November 2nd.
The Texans are the much better defensive team, finishing the season second in overall defensive DVOA, with the Steelers at 11th. The public seems to overrate the Steelers defensively, but they’re much close to average than they are to elite.
It’s hard to see Pittsburgh getting anything going offensively, while Houston should be able to do enough to control this game.
I’m jumping on their -3 spread now at -102 odds (DraftKings), but there’s also a good chance it drops to 2.5 before game time so it might be worth holding out.
Pick: Texans -3 (+100)
Pat Freiermuth Props
Pat Freiermuth has been great in his last two games, but those matchups were much softer than what he's going up against tonight with the Texans defense — and all that production came without DK Metcalf active.
With Metcalf back in the fold, a significant amount of usage should be going to him, so Freiermuth should see a decrease in volume.
In games that Metcalf has played this season, Freiermuth has hit the over at this number in 2-of-15 games. While Darnell Washington's injury should increase Freiermuth's snap count, the volume should still be too low.
The Texans have been a top-2 defense this season and top-3 at defending tight ends.
I have Freiermuth projected eight yards under this number.
Pick: Pat Freiermuth Under 34.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Woody Marks Anytime TD Pick
By Sean Koerner
Rookie fourth-rounder Woody Marks has operated as the Texans' workhorse running back for most of the season, and he's the guy I'm taking a shot on tonight in the anytime touchdown market at +185.
Notable for this game is that rookie Jawhar Jordan was ruled out after a suffering an ankle injury in Week 18. That leaves veteran Nick Chubb and Dare Ogunbowale as Houston's depth pieces at the position, so Marks could see a big workload.
Marks is a versatile scoring threat — he logged two rushing touchdowns in the regular season and added three touchdowns as a receiver, which gives him plenty of upside.
I'm projecting Marks closer to +135 for an anytime touchdown so I like the value here.
Pick: Woody Marks Anytime Touchdown (+180)
Woody Marks Props: Receiving Yards
By Dan Back
The game-log watchers won't like this bet because Woody Marks has gone under this number in seven straight games, but he is definitely the guy the Texans want to use out of the backfield in long-yardage downs and 2-minute situations.
Going back to his college years at USC, Marks has been dynamic in that capacity; just a couple weeks ago we saw the Steelers give up 10 receptions to Jahmyr Gibbs against a similar two-back system.
Ten receiving yards is such an attainable number that it might just take one reception to cover. Marks is by far the best running back the Texans have — I suspect he will get plenty of run after resting up late in the season, not to mention thin depth behind him.
Pick: Woody Marks Over 9.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
