Best Week 15 NFL Prop Bets & Betting Picks at DraftKings
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Phillip Lindsay
- Looking to bet on some NFL player props for Week 15? Matthew Freedman has analyzed all of the odds, compared them to our projections and found two picks worth betting right away at DraftKings.
- Below he'll analyze why Phillip Lindsay's receiving yardage over/under and Tyler Boyd's receiving yardage over/under are both worth a bet.
- Be sure to act fast, as the odds for player props can move quickly.
DraftKings is consistently one of the first sportsbooks to post NFL player props each week, releasing lines on Friday afternoon for the slate of Sunday games.
Some lines for the Week 15 games have just been posted, and since the prop market moves quickly, I’m highlighting two bets I’m making immediately, based on the research I’ve done and the projections we have in the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.
If you aren’t subscribing to FantasyLabs to get an edge on props, you’re living wrong.
This season, I’m 292-182-9 (+65.8) on NFL player props.
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $200 and a deposit bonus of up to $500.
Broncos RB Phillip Lindsay Receiving Yards
- Over 11.5: -112
- Under 11.5: -112
This line looks a lot like a trap, and I’m not about to step into it.
In the four games since the Week 10 bye, Lindsay has had receiving yardage totals of eight, 11, four and four.
It’s almost as if the sportsbook is begging you to look at Lindsay’s recent game log, look at the line and then hammer the under.
I’m taking the over.
Lindsay is still a very accomplished pass-catching back back, and for his career he has 15.3 receiving yards per game.
Most importantly, the Chiefs have allowed an NFL-high 60.8 yards receiving per game to opposing backfields, and as significant road underdogs, the Broncos could have a pass-heavy game script.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Lindsay projected for 16.3 receiving yards.
Pick: Over 11.5 (-112)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10 (out of 10)
Bengals WR Tyler Boyd Receiving Yards
- Over 61.5: -112
- Under 61.5: -112
Boyd is tied for No. 6 in the league with 9.2 targets per game, but he hasn’t been all that efficient with his volume, averaging just 7.0 yards per target.
As a result, he’s averaged 64.1 yards per game this year with a median of 62.
So this line is in line with what we’ve come to expect from Boyd this year, but it makes little sense when his matchup is taken into account.
The Patriots have held opposing wide receiver units to a league-low 117.0 yards per game, and they are No. 1 in pass defense (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric).
As I mention in my Week 15 WR/CB matchups piece, I expect No. 1 cornerback Stephon Gilmore to shadow Boyd, and Gilmore — a 2018 All-Pro selection — is having the best season of his career.
Gilmore has allowed just 32.3 yards per game in his coverage this year, and in only one game has he allowed more than 61.5.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Boyd projected for 50.8 receiving yards.
Pick: Under 61.5 (-112)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 9
Freedman is 508-383-21 (57%) overall betting on the NFL. To see the rest of the player props he’s betting, follow him in The Action Network App as he’ll continue to fill out his prop card throughout the weekend.