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NFL Prop Picks For Saints vs. Buccaneers: The Leonard Fournette Over To Bet Sunday Night

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Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Leonard Fournette

Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season — he was 66-42 (61.1%) heading into Sunday and has a 273-191-5 (58.8%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.

Find his pick for Sunday Night Football below. And if you’re looking for more action, his projections also power the FantasyLabs NFL Player Prop Tool, which grades every prop.

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NFL Prop Bets For Saints vs. Buccaneers 

  • The Pick: Leonard Fournette Over 34.5 Rush Yards (-110)
  • Bet Now: BetMGM

The Bucs backfield is always tricky to project when both Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones are healthy.

Last week, Jones ended up taking a backseat to Fournette after a costly fumble in the first quarter, after which Fournette out-touched Jones 18-to-4 the rest of the way. The expectation heading into Sunday night is that it will be back to an even timeshare between these two backs. I have them both projected to get around 11.5 carries, however, there’s a chance that Bruce Arians keeps Jones in the doghouse and uses Fournette as the lead back again. That scenario would see Fournette sail over this number, giving us a very practical “out” for the over.

Another potential “out” that would lead toward Fournette hitting his over would be if the high winds, which are expected to be around 20 mph for much of the game, could result in both teams leaning on the run more.

It also doesn’t hurt that the Bucs have not been using a third back when Fournette and Jones are both healthy (only two snaps for Ke’Shawn Vaughn over the past two games). This gives Fournette a higher floor than most running backs in a committee.

There are multiple paths to Fournette seeing 12 or more carries on Sunday night. I would bet this up to 39.5, but here are the projected chances of him going over or under various yardages based on my 10,000 player prop simulations:

Rush Yds
Over
Under
34.5
62.5%
37.5%
35.5
61.0%
39.0%
36.5
58.6%
41.4%
37.5
55.5%
44.5%
38.5
53.0%
47.0%
39.5
50.9%
49.1%
40.5
48.6%
51.4%

[Bet now at BetMGM and win $100 if a touchdown is scored]

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