The NFL season enters Week 8, and I have some NFL prop bets locked in for Sunday for Jets vs Bengals, Giants vs Eagles, 49ers vs Texans, Bills vs Panthers and Browns vs Patriots.
Let's get into my Week 8 player props.
Week 8 NFL Prop Bets
- Tee Higgins Under 4.5 Receptions (-103; DraftKings); 0.52 units
- Cam Skattebo Under 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115; DraftKings); 0.58 units
- Jayden Higgins Over 16.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115; FanDuel); 0.57 units
- Tommy Tremble Under 9.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110; BetMGM); 0.55 units
- Hunter Henry Under 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115; BetMGM); 0.58 units
Important disclaimer regarding my unit sizing since I get asked about this often:
The reason I use 0.5 units as a baseline has nothing to do with confidence. It’s about expanding the threshold for what qualifies as an “official play.”
Instead of posting four full-unit plays, I can post eight half-unit plays. That gives followers more chances to get similar odds since lines often move quickly after I post.
For lower-limit markets like tackles, books also dictate my actual stake since I can’t always get full exposure. Every play I post is one I’m confident in.
The 0.5u label simply reflects a structural change, not uncertainty. My real confidence is reflected in the projected hit rate versus the implied odds, and it’s up to you to decide how much value is still there at current prices.
Tee Higgins Receptions
The Bengals are the team I want to attack, and we have a unique setup with a pass-heavy team favored by six points and projected to play with the lead at a +32% higher rate than usual. That should mean less passing volume overall.
Chase Brown props were my first look since he should see more carries, but the market adjusted correctly (even with Samaje Perine’s role expanding).
Joe Flacco unders on attempts, yards and completions were also interesting, but those numbers aren’t showing much value.
However, that led me to Tee Higgins under 4.5 receptions as the best angle.
Flacco should still pepper Ja'Marr Chase with underneath targets, especially with Sauce Gardner out, making it even easier to funnel looks his way.
That doesn’t mean Higgins won’t have his moments — he’s still one of the best WR2s in the league — but he tends to see most of his targets downfield, where catch rates are naturally lower. That’s why I’m avoiding his yardage prop but targeting receptions.
In Flacco’s two starts, he completed 29 and 31 passes, and Higgins finished with five and six receptions in those high-volume games.
Flacco’s line is 23.5 completions for Sunday, about 6.5 fewer on average, so there is simply less catch volume to distribute. With Cincinnati likely controlling script and taking fewer deep shots, Higgins is the most likely receiver to feel that reduction, which pushes him under 4.5 more often than not.
I’m projecting Higgins at 4.1 receptions with roughly a 60% chance to stay under 4.5.
Cam Skattebo Rushing Yards
I love Cam Skattebo as much as anyone, but this number looks a tad inflated.
He’s cleared it in five straight games, so it’s safe to assume around 99% of the action is on the over, but the matchup and game script suggest hidden downside.
Skattebo went 19/98/3 vs. PHI two weeks ago, though that came with Jalen Carter out. When Carter plays, the Eagles allow 0.5 yards per carry fewer to RBs.
With Jordan Davis, Zack Baun, and Jihaad Campbell all solid in run support, I feel like this run defense is tougher than season-long metrics would indicate.
The Giants are projected to play with a lead at a 25% lower rate than usual, which could reduce their rushing volume. And if they trail, Tyrone Tracy Jr. could eat into Skattebo’s snaps even more. Tracy was eased back in from injury a couple weeks ago and looked close to 100% last week, when he saw an increased role in the second half.
I’m projecting Skattebo’s median around 49.5 yards and roughly a 60% chance to stay under 54.5.
I’ve been betting props for 20 years now — if it really were as simple as betting the good/fun players’ overs, that would make everyone’s life easier.
Sadly, that’s not how sports betting works. It also doesn’t mean I’ll hit this prop either, but it’s the kind of spot that I’ve found tends to offer value in the long run.
Jayden Higgins Longest Reception
Jayden Higgins is a second-round rookie WR I was high on, but he has started slow while Xavier Hutchinson has been the clear WR2.
With Nico Collins out, Higgins should slide into that outside role as his direct backup. My comp for him was a Dollar Store version of Nico Collins/Tee Higgins (no relation).
Christian Kirk’s absence mostly frees slot snaps for Jaylin Noel and Braxton Berrios, but Higgins benefits from Collins' vacated perimeter role.
For Higgins specifically, the longest reception market is the one to attack because his targets tend to be deeper when he is on the field and he probably won’t draw a ton of targets.
C.J. Stroud should have a cleaner pocket with Nick Bosa out and Bryce Huff sidelined. Huff had 14 more pressures than any other 49er, so protection should hold up long enough for Stroud to find time to target Higgins downfield on occasion.
I project Higgins' median longest catch at 18.5 yards, with about a 59% chance to clear 16.5.
I also show value on FanDuel alts: 20+ yards (+130) and 30+ yards (+420). I have 30+ closer to +300.
Tommy Tremble Longest Reception
Despite being 7-point underdogs, the Panthers will likely try to lean on the run against a Bills run-funnel defense, especially with both Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle healthy.
Tommy Tremble saw a sharp drop in routes last week with Ja'Tavion Sanders returning from a three-game absence. Rookie Mitchell Evans even ran one more route than Tremble, which further caps his role in the passing game.
Add in Jalen Coker’s season debut and Jimmy Horn Jr. establishing a consistent role, and it’s clear Tremble’s passing-game involvement is trending down.
Tremble's first-read rate drops from 22% (in three games without Sanders) to just 5.2% when Sanders is active. Tremble still plays in early-down and run-heavy personnel, but when he does see a target, they are typically just 4-5 yards downfield.
The market has already adjusted on his receptions and yardage props, yet the longest reception line remains a bit too high.
Even if Tremble catches 1–2 passes underneath, the odds of one going for 10+ yards are less than a coin flip. I’m projecting his median longest catch at eight yards, giving roughly a 60% chance he stays under 9.5.
This is a sneaky prop for the early slate with plenty of other games to distract from this gross/boring prop. Either it quietly cashes with plenty of other games/props going on, or you know early if he breaks a 10+ yard catch and run (which my model expects only about 40% of the time).
Hunter Henry Receiving Yards
I discussed this on the Fantasy Flex projections podcast right after talking up Oronde Gadsden in the “high on” section, and it’s a spot where the matchup really tilts against Hunter Henry.
The Browns play man coverage at the highest rate in the league; Henry’s yards per route run drops from 2.02 vs. zone (second-highest on the team) to 0.78 vs. man (sixth on the team).
That’s a pretty typical split for tight ends, and Cleveland has done a strong job limiting production from the position (specifically the team’s No .1 TE).
We’ve also seen Henry’s first read and target share crater over the last four games. It should bounce back a bit, but it makes sense that Drake Maye has been developing more chemistry with his new WRs (especially Stefon Diggs) after relying heavily on Henry to start the season.
I’m projecting Henry's median closer to 32.5 yards, with about a 60% chance to stay under 37.5.
