The NFL season enters Week 9, and I have some NFL prop bets locked in for Sunday for 49ers vs Giants, Bears vs Bengals, Vikings vs Lions and Broncos vs Texans.
Let's get into my Week 9 player props.
Week 9 NFL Prop Bets
- Olamide Zaccheaus Over 3.5 Receptions (+100; BetMGM); 0.5 units
- Abdul Carter Over 0.25 Sacks (+154; FanDuel); 0.5 units
- Aidan Hutchinson Under 3.5 Tackles + Assists (-112; DraftKings); 0.56 units
- Kamari Lassiter Over 5.5 Tackles + Assists (-132; DraftKings); 0.66 units
Important disclaimer regarding my unit sizing:
The reason I use 0.5 units as a baseline has nothing to do with my confidence on a pick. It’s about expanding the threshold for what qualifies as an “official play.”
Instead of posting four full-unit plays, I can post eight half-unit plays. That gives followers more chances to get similar odds since lines often move quickly after I post.
For lower-limit markets like tackles, books also dictate my actual stake since I can’t always get full exposure. Every play I post is one I’m confident in.
The 0.5u label simply reflects a structural change, not uncertainty. My real confidence is reflected in the projected hit rate versus the implied odds, and it’s up to you to decide how much value is still there at current prices.
Olamide Zaccheaus Receptions
With Luther Burden III ruled out, Olamide Zaccheaus gets a clear bump in usage. DJ Moore also benefits, but with both D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson ruled out, there’s a good chance Moore lines up in the backfield more often, which gives Zaccheaus even more opportunity.
This should be one of Caleb Williams’ cleanest pockets of the season, if not his career.
The Bengals already rank bottom five in pressure rate, and Trey Hendrickson is doubtful. That’s significant because Zaccheaus' target rate jumps from 15% when Williams is pressured to a team-high 31% when he has a clean pocket. Fewer scrambles also mean more pass attempts overall, which adds volume to the passing game.
Zaccheaus' average target depth is just 5.7 yards downfield, a career low, but that short-area usage helps his reception market the most.
He’s been a bit unlucky with only a 66% catch rate, and based on his target profile, I’d expect something closer to 71%. Factoring that in, I project Zaccheaus around 4.1 receptions with about a 60% chance to clear 3.5.
Abdul Carter Sacks
Abdul Carter, the third overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, has been an elite pass rusher so far. He's tied for a league-high 19 quick pressures, which is the most predictive metric for future sacks.
Carter, however, has only been credited with 0.5 sacks on the season. My expected sack model has him closer to 4.1 sacks, meaning he’s due for some serious positive regression.
I’m projecting about a 51% chance he records a sack against the 49ers.
FanDuel counts a 0.5 sack as a win for this market, and while DraftKings lists him at Over 0.25 at +139, FanDuel’s +154 offers better value. DraftKings also has 2+ sacks at +1080, which I project closer to +620, so that’s worth a small sprinkle as well.
Filling in once again for Brock Purdy, Mac Jones should drop back around 37 times, and he’s roughly league average in sack rate, which makes this a solid spot for Carter’s first real breakout.
The market is looking too much into his measly 0.5 sacks on the season, but the metrics say he’s on the verge of a multi-sack game.
I also played Carter to have over 1.75 sacks at +1080 on DraftKings. I'm Ppojecting Carter closer to +620 to have 2+ sacks.
Aidan Hutchinson Tackles + Assists
Aidan Hutchinson has only cleared this number in 2-of-7 games this season, and that’s with a sack in five of them.
I’m projecting Hutchinson for 1.2 sacks (right in line with his sack prop) yet still landing around 3.1 total tackles, giving roughly a 61% chance he stays under 3.5 tackles + assists.
There are multiple paths for him to finish under this number even if he records a sack or two.
Detroit should dominate time of possession, limiting Minnesota’s total play volume. The Vikings are projected for 21.5 rush attempts, about 0.5 fewer than Detroit’s season average faced, which reduces Hutchinson’s run-game tackle chances.
Hutchinson will still have sack upside, but his tackle floor is lower in this game script.
Kamari Lassiter Tackles + Assists
Kamari Lassiter has been a tackle machine for the Texans this season, averaging 6.4 per game, but he has only cleared this number in 3-of-7 games.
The main reason for that is his brutal schedule, where he’d be expected to have about five more tackles if he faced a league-average slate.
This should be an eruption spot against a Broncos team that’s allowed the third-most tackles to opposing CBs. The only above-average matchup Lassiter's had all season was the Rams (6th-most tackle opps to CBs), and he finished with nine tackles in that game.
Lassiter leads the Texans in solo tackles in both run defense and coverage, which is rare for a CB. He’s not going to be involved in sacks, and with Bo Nix being one of the toughest QBs to sack, his scrambles/completions (that normally would have been sacks against other teams) should only lead to more tackle opps for Lassiter, specifically.
The Broncos are expected to provide more run and completion volume than Houston typically faces.
I'm projecting Lassiter closer to 6.8 tackles, with about a 67% chance to clear 5.5.
