NFL Thanksgiving Sharp Picks: How Pros Are Betting the Saints vs. Falcons Over/Under
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dan Quinn
- Professional bettors have made their picks clear for all three of the Thanksgiving NFL games.
- Below, we'll analyze the betting market and updated odds Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys (line: Cowboys -6.5 | over/under: 47) and New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (spread: Saints -6.5 | over/under 48.5).
- Here's how the sharps are playing the Thanksgiving slate.
Happy Thanksgiving, Action Network readers. There’s a
great slate of Thanksgiving NFL action on tap, which will feature Mitchell Trubisky and a fella by the name of David Blough in the same game.
Here’s a breakdown of how each spread and total is being impacted by the market, including a couple of seriously sharp moves.
Buffalo Bills @ Dallas Cowboys
4:30 p.m. ET | CBS
In what most would agree is the “best” game on the board, we have a trendy Turkey Day dog on our hands, as Buffalo (+6.5/7) is commanding more than 60% of bets and dollars in Dallas. Buffalo is tied with Arizona as the league’s best team against the spread (7-3-1), but let us not forget Dallas (7-4) is close behind.
Some books are holding on to the opening number of seven, while others have shifted down to 6.5 thanks to the Buffalo support. The spread isn’t seeing much professional action in either direction thus far, but the total is another story.
Tickets are split, but the over is getting three-quarters of the cash in what could be a surprisingly high-scoring game. Two steam moves on the over (triggered at 45 and 46) have also helped move the line, which is now at 47 after opening at 44.5.
Both teams are coming off of very low-scoring games (23 for Buffalo, 22 for Dallas), but the pros are “buying low” and fading what’s fresh in everyone’s mind.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
The Falcons showed some promise by upsetting these very same Saints and demolishing the Panthers, but have already lost the hearts of the public thanks to their ugly play vs. the Bucs on Sunday.
Just 18% of bettors are taking Atlanta — which, I will once again remind you, beat the Saints by 17 points on the road earlier this month — plus seven points at home. This line hasn’t had the same movement as Chicago-Detroit, but it has gone from +6.5 to +7 at most shops.
Like in Dallas, the over/under is the target of the pros in this game.
Three-quarters of bets are on the over, but the total has dropped. Four consecutive Bet Signals, including three Reverse Line Moves, have hit the under, causing the line to fall from 50 to 48.5.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
12:30 p.m. ET | FOX
Update: The Lions have officially named David Blough their starter.
Jeff Driskel or David Blough, take your pick. Driskel has been limited in practice this week thanks to a hamstring injury and is officially questionable, leaving Blough — a 24-year-old Purdue product with zero NFL experience — as the potential heir apparent. I’m pretty sure most people don’t care who starts for Detroit — they’re taking the Bears regardless.
Chicago is getting 80+% of tickets and dollars thus far, something that has historically led to Thanksgiving profits. Clearly the public loves the Bears, but sharps have taken a liking to them, too.
Odds as of Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. ET. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
The spread has seen sharp action on both sides, but each of the past five Bet Signals have been on Chicago at -3/-3.5. These waves of pro action, in addition to the public onslaught, have caused the Bears to move up to -4. Considering the line opened at -1, that’s some pretty serious line movement.
With a potential Trubisky-Blough bout on our hands, it’s no surprise that pros and Joes have been betting in harmony on the under. The total, which opened at 38.5/39, is down to 37 around the market. The most recent steam move came in at 1 p.m. ET and dropped the line a full point from 38 to 37.
Update: Following the Blough news, the line moved to -4.5 at some books, and even -5 or -5.5 at others.