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In the Week 3 edition of Thursday Night Football, the Green Bay Packers host the Atlanta Falcons. While the Packers are the favorites across prediction markets, the return of Michael Penix Jr. promises to bring fresh vitality to the Falcons' offense. The million-dollar question is whether the quarterback change will be enough to erase the atrocious impression left by that loss to the Panthers.
Before diving deep into the top picks for this game, be sure to download the Action Network app to get the latest NFL updates.
The Moneyline Odds
Right now, Kalshi traders are fairly convinced of the Green Bay Packers' superiority. Whether coming off their victory over the New York Jets or benefiting from home-field advantage, the 70% implied probability makes it crystal clear who the favorite is to take this Thursday Night Football matchup.
However, it is not quite that simple. The Atlanta Falcons have one key factor in their favor: the return of Michael Penix Jr. following a two-week stretch with Cooper Rush stepping in at quarterback. Those were tough outings, as the Falcons suffered brutal losses, including a shocking 34-3 blowout against the Panthers.
That is why Penix Jr.'s return serves as a welcome relief, even if it is not a silver bullet for all the issues facing the Falcons this season.
The Packers are not exactly at full strength either, having lost key players like Jayden Reed and Micah Parsons for a large portion of the season. Even so, backing the favorite still looks like the safest play on the board, though the hefty price tag on Green Bay's Yes shares is a bit of a bummer.
Trading Totals and Spread
While the Packers enjoy several structural advantages and the Falcons enter on a cold streak, this game will not be a shootout. Instead, expect a physical battle between two teams dealing with defensive struggles and a growing list of starters in the training room.
In that context, targeting a low-scoring game seems like the logical take. Right now, the Over 43.5 Points contract trades at a 47% implied probability, but this matchup projects to be even tighter. Taking a position on Under 40.5 Points at 43 cents looks like a compelling option to add some action to Thursday night.
As for the spread, one of the most popular plays on Kalshi is a Packers victory by Over 4.5 Points. At 52 cents, it looks like a solid value, even if Green Bay's offensive firepower remains one of the many question marks hanging over this game.
