For NFL Week 8, I'm on three spreads and one moneyline for the Sunday slate.
Below, you can find my previews for Jets vs Bengals, Buccaneers vs Saints, Bears vs Ravens and 49ers vs Texans.
Let's get into my Week 8 picks and predictions for Sunday, October 26.
NFL Week 8 Picks & Predictions
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Jets vs Bengals
I did play this earlier in the week — although the injury report for New York is certainly concerning. Not only will the Jets be without Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner, the statuses of Tyrod Taylor, Breece Hall, Josh Reynolds and Mason Taylor are up in the air.
Still, even with a dire injury situation, I just can't get to this number.
Yes, Joe Flacco looked great in an upset win over Pittsburgh on Thursday night, which does mean the Bengals have extra rest (we'll see on Trey Hendrickson's status). However, this is still a team that was recently catching 11.5 points at home to the Lions and two-touchdown underdogs in Green Bay.
Flacco is an upgrade over Jake Browning, but we've seen what Flacco is for the most part in recent seasons. He's been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.
Plus, this Cincinnati team still has one of the league's worst defenses, a non-existent ground game and a pitiful offensive line.
Maybe Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins go off again, but I still have to make this bad Bengals team prove it can win by a touchdown-plus. And at least Michael Carter is back in the secondary and Quincy Williams looks like he may return from IR at linebacker.
The Jets are also bad. I'm not breaking any news by saying that about an 0-7 squad that is poorly coached.
However, their defense has at least been decent on a down-to-down basis, ranking top-seven in the league in both rush and pass success rate. For what it's worth, the Bengals rank in the bottom five in both.
What has killed the Jets is explosive plays and a lack of takeaways. They've only forced one turnover on the season. They've been bad, but unlucky.
Look no further than fumbles in their games. They have recovered only one of nine of their opponent fumbles, while they've lost seven of their 10.
As a result, they have the league's worst turnover differential at -9. Positive regression on that front certainly looms and Flacco will certainly cough the ball up.
New York has also only converted 50% of its fourth downs while its opponents have secured first downs on 87.5% of their attempts.
You may be saying, "So what, the Jets can't score."
That's a valid point, but this is the Bengals defense we are talking about. They don't blitz and don't get pressure, which has killed whatever quarterback has been under center for New York this season.
I'm assuming Taylor will be able to go — he is a slight upgrade over Justin Fields in my opinion. He can still operate an offense, as evidenced by the Jets near upset in Tampa Bay.
For his career, Taylor has gone 34-21-4 ATS (61.8%) as an underdog, including 9-3-1 ATS when catching six-plus points. Among all qualified quarterbacks, he's the ninth-most profitable of all-time.
Trending: Since 2003, winless road 'dogs in game eight or later have gone 21-12 (63.6%) ATS, covering by 2.4 points per game on average.
Pick: Jets +6.5 (-112)
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Bears vs Ravens
This is a tough handicap with the uncertainty surrounding the status of Lamar Jackson.
If he does, this sets up as a Ravens smash spot off the bye (where John Harbaugh has thrived) with their season essentially on the line.
Additionally, Baltimore should come into this one at close to full strength, except for the defensive line. The defense should look exponentially better, and the offense now has all the pieces to finally operate as it did last season, when it could not be stopped in the regular season.
The Bears have won four straight to put themselves back in the playoff mix in a very tough division, but this recent run has been a bit fraudulent. Chicago looks like a bit of a paper tiger when you dig a little deeper.
While the Bears are improving under Ben Johnson, they have won four straight over the Commanders (thanks to fumble luck), Raiders (in a game where they were dominated statistically), Saints and Cowboys.
One of the primary reasons they have been able to rattle off four consecutive wins is due to turnover luck. They have a +13 turnover margin (and good fourth-down fortune) during their winning streak and lead the league for the entire season at +11. Meanwhile, the Ravens have the second-worst margin at -7.
Chicago simply can't keep relying on turnovers, especially when you consider it ranks 24th in Success Rate and 29th in EPA per Play over the past four games when you remove turnovers.
This defense has holes everywhere and now will be extremely shorthanded in the secondary. Jaylon Johnson is already on IR and now two more starters will miss on Sunday in Tyrique Stevenson and Kyler Gordon.
It's bleak in the defensive backfield and the offense (which has also not been efficient on a down-to-down basis with Caleb Williams owning the second-highest missed throw rate in the league) is even dealing with a few key injuries.
This is a perfect buy-low, sell-high spot.
Even if Jackson is out, I’d still bet the Ravens after the line comes down.
Trending: Teams with a winning percentage of 20% or less as 3+ point favs against winning teams have gone 30-14-2 (68%) ATS since 2003.
Pick: Ravens -2 (-110)
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49ers vs Texans
The Texans offense is a complete mess and borderline dysfunctional when opposing defenses can generate pressure against their horrid offensive line. That's exactly why their offense crumbled against the Seahawks last week.
Well, that won't be a concern against a 49ers defense that doesn't blitz often and simply can't generate pressure without Nick Bosa.
To make matters worse, San Francisco also recently lost star linebacker Fred Warner and will be without Bryce Huff and Yetur Gross-Matos. It could also be down its top corner and another starting linebacker.
Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud, who has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league against the blitz and pressure, should actually have time to operate and hit some plays downfield even without Nico Collins and Christian Kirk.
On the other side of the ball, Mac Jones will get the start once again.
He's been perfectly fine as a starter, but he only has three touchdowns to four interceptions over his past four starts despite facing an easy schedule of defenses. This will be his toughest test by a wide margin.
The 49ers offense lacks explosiveness, which is the one area where Houston's defense has struggled with.
The run game did look much better last week. That likely had a lot to do with the return of George Kittle to the lineup. However, that's still been a struggle throughout the season (24th in Rush EPA and 20th in Success Rate).
The 49ers want to methodically move the ball down the field on opposing defenses. Well, that's a tall order against arguably the best stop unit in the league.
This is not only a perfect buy-low spot on Houston in a desperation spot at home, but also presents an opportunity to sell high on a beat-up 49ers squad that has gone 4-1 in one-possession games.
Similar to the Bucs, the 49ers sport a 5-2 record, but with an accompanying tiny point differential of +7. They easily could have two or three more losses.
Just think back to the wide-open drop Arizona had to seal the game in a one-point loss or the Rams getting stuffed on 4th and 1 in overtime. Even the Saints and Seahawks had the ball late in regulation with a chance to win on the game's final possession.
The perception of these two teams is just way off based on how Houston has looked vs. defenses that can overwhelm its front. That's not this matchup.
Believe it or not, Houston actually ranks ninth in DVOA while San Francisco ranks 18th. The Texans will also have a substantial special teams edge, which could make all the difference in what profiles as a lower-scoring affair.
I trust Stroud to make enough plays against this wounded defense even with a group of Iowa State wideouts, but it's the Houston defense that should lead the way to a potentially season-saving victory (for now).
Trending: Mac Jones is just 5-12 ATS (32.1%) as an underdog, failing to cover by over a field goal per game on average. That includes a 5-12 ATS mark (29.4%) away from home in that role.
Pick: Texans Moneyline (-135)
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Buccaneers vs Saints
The injury reports tell the story in this one.
Tampa Bay heads to New Orleans on a short week for its second straight road game — and the Bucs are limping there.
The Bucs will be without Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, while their right side of the offensive line will once again rely on backups after losing right guard Luke Haggard.
Rookie phenom Emeka Egbuka is expected to play, but he might not be at full strength. Defensively, things aren’t any better: Calijah Kancey is done for the season and Haason Reddick will also be sidelined.
The Saints, meanwhile, are in far better shape. They did lose center Eric McCoy last week, which could create some trouble against Vita Vea — assuming he even plays, since he missed practice on both Thursday and Friday.
Despite their 5–2 record, the Bucs own a negative point differential (-1). Four of those five wins came on last-minute drives, each by three points or fewer.
Their lone comfortable victory — by 11 points — came against an injury-riddled 49ers team that still outgained them but couldn’t overcome two turnovers and failed fourth downs.
Baker Mayfield has essentially needed to play at an MVP level in crunch time to bail them out, even though he ranks just 22nd in overall success rate. That kind of late-game magic isn’t sustainable, especially with this many injuries.
New Orleans, on the other hand, sits at just one win but has been competitive nearly every week. Spencer Rattler had a rough outing against Chicago, yet overall he’s looked sharp in his sophomore campaign — ranking 13th in Success Rate and 14th in CPOE, a massive improvement from the Saints’ QB play a year ago.
Rattler’s been especially dangerous off play-action plays and against the blitz, which he’ll see plenty of against Todd Bowles’ defense. According to PFF, Rattler ranks as the third-best quarterback in the league against the blitz this season.
Both teams have been disastrous on special teams, ranking bottom-two in DVOA, so that’s unlikely to swing the matchup either way.
Still, this feels like another tight Bucs game — and I’ll gladly take the healthier home divisional 'dog catching 4.5 points.
Trending: Since 2003, the Saints have gone 22-8 ATS (73.3%) as home divisional 'dogs, covering by nearly five points per game on average. That includes a 12-1 ATS mark since 2015 in that spot.
Pick: Saints +4.5 (-128)
Stuckey's Week 8 Betting Card
Editor's Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These NFL picks have value as straight bets.
- Jets +6.5 (-120)
- Ravens -2 (-125)
- Texans Moneyline (-135)
- Saints +4.5 (-128)
