The Patriots visit the Broncos for the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, Jan. 25. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET from Empower Field at Mile High. The game will broadcast on CBS and Paramount+.
For our Patriots vs Broncos anytime touchdown picks, we are targeting Nate Adkins and Adam Trautman.
Continue below for our Patriots vs Broncos anytime touchdown preview for Sunday's Divisional Round game.
Patriots vs Broncos Anytime Touchdown Props
- Nate Adkins Anytime Touchdown (+2500; DraftKings)
- Adam Trautman Anytime Touchdown (+1100; DraftKings)
Patriots vs Broncos Anytime Touchdown Picks
Nate Adkins Anytime Touchdown (+2500)
By Sean Koerner
Is Nate Adkins going to score a touchdown in the AFC Championship Game?
Probably not.
Should he be priced at 25-to-1, though? Hell, no.
The Broncos' third tight end scored three touchdowns last year; this season, he's only scored once, but that was in just eight games, and in some of those games, he either left early or had very low usage.
One touchdown in eight games; that's still good enough to bet at this price, right?
In the Divisional Round, Adkins' routes run rate was back up to around 30%, which could have been a byproduct of all the wide receiver injuries the Broncos were dealing with in the game.
The statuses of Pat Bryant (concussion) and Troy Franklin will be worth monitoring, but if either of them are out and/or limited, the Broncos could lean on heavier tight end sets. Maybe they'll do that anyway with Jarrett Stidham under center so I could see Atkins having a 20-to-30% route turn rate.
Another TE, Lucas Krull, could return from the IR, but they also have RB JK Dobbins and LB Drew Sanders potentially returning, so Denver might need to bring back someone like Dobbins instead of Krull.
Either way, I have Adkins closer to 18-to-1, so I like the value we're getting here.
Pick: Nate Adkins Anytime Touchdown (+2500)
Adam Trautman Anytime Touchdown (+1100)
By Chris Raybon
Like Sean, I'm going with a longer shot anytime touchdown scorer with Adam Trautman at around 12-to-1.
Obviously, the odds for Broncos pass-catchers are getting longer with Jarrett Stidham as the starting quarterback. In a way, it could even out because Stidham will not scramble quite as much as Bo Nix did.
Trautman has been consistently getting more playing time at the expense of fellow TE Evan Engram, and that's especially true in the red zone.
Last week in the Divisional Round Trautman had six red-zone snaps, while Engram had only three. Trautman had three red-zone routes; Engram had one. Engram and RT Frank Crum ran the same number of routes in the red zone last week.
Additionally, Trautman may have gotten some work with Stidham on the second team behind Engram for most of the year so they could have some chemistry.
Pick: Adam Trautman Anytime Touchdown (+1100)
Editor's Note: An anytime touchdown parlay is not the author's formal recommendation. These touchdown picks have value as straight bets.
