Eagles-Redskins Betting Preview: The Public Can’t Get Enough of Philly

Betting odds: Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins

• Spread: Eagles -6.5
• Over/Under: 42
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV channel: FOX

Betting market: This is a must-win game for Philly, which means 80% of bettors believe the Eagles will win by at least a touchdown at the time of writing (see live data here).

Don't include sharp bettors in that 80%, though. In fact, the other 20% has been so sharp that oddsmakers were forced to move the line off the key number of seven.

There have been five reverse line moves on Washington at +7, which explains that movement, doesn't it? — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Philadelphia opened as 7-point favorites in Washington. Since 2003, teams that opened as at least touchdown favorites on the road in December and January have gone 40-61-2 (40%) against the spread.

If the line moves away from those teams — like with the Eagles (-7 to -6.5) — these teams have gone 11-21-1 (34%) ATS. — John Ewing

Playoff picture: This is probably the simplest playoff scenario of the week: To make the postseason, the Eagles need to win and have the Vikings lose to the Bears.

Our simulations give this a 37.5% chance of happening. — Scott T. Miller

Metrics that matter: The Redskins are struggling on offense, scoring fewer than 17 points in four consecutive games.

Teams are only 3-6 ATS in this spot since 2003, and when they score fewer than 17 points in at least four straight games over the final quarter of the regular season, they're 11-24-1 (31.4%) ATS, failing to cover by 4.9 points per game. — Evan Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Eagles' Interior Defensive Line vs. Redskins' Interior Offensive Line

The Redskins' interior O-line has been absolutely demolished by injuries. Guards Brandon Scherff, Shawn Lauvao, Jonathan Cooper and Austin Howard have all been placed on the Injured Reserve since Week 9, leaving Luke Bowanko and Zac Kerin to start.

Bowanko and Kerin both have grades of 51.7 from Pro Football Focus and would rank outside of the top 64 at their position if they had played enough snaps to qualify.

That group — along with center Chase Roullier, who has a 62.1 PFF grade that ranks 17th among centers — will have to contend with Fletcher Cox (PFF’s No. 3 overall interior defender) and second-year revelation Treyvon Hester (24th).

And although veterans Tim Jernigan and Haloti Ngata haven't been in top form this season, they too should have an advantage over Washington’s inexperienced unit whenever they rotate in. — Chris Raybon

Which team is healthier? Eagles

Both teams are injury-riddled messes that don't have the luxury of resting starters.

Nick Foles will once again start for Carson Wentz (back) and might have to work behind a shoddy offensive line that's dealing with injuries to center Jason Kelce (knee), left tackle Jason Peters (quad) and left guard Isaac Seumalo (pec).

Philly's defense isn't at full health, either, with defensive linemen Michael Bennett (foot) and Cox (quad) at less than 100%.

The Redskins have shut down Jordan Reed (foot, IR) and Colt McCoy (leg, IR) for the season.

And while the defense is mostly healthy outside of defensive tackle Matt Ioannidis (hamstring), the offense could be without tight end Vernon Davis (concussion), guards Ty Nsekhe (knee) and Tony Bergstrom (ankle, knee), along with wide receivers Josh Doctson (illness) and Maurice Harris (illness).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: With Foles under center, Zach Ertz is seeing 29% of the Eagles' target share, making him one of the league's most reliable tight ends.

He's $100 more expensive than Travis Kelce on FanDuel, but $500 cheaper on DraftKings. Either way, Ertz is affordable on both sites if you're choosing to pay up for a tight end. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Redskins +6.5

The Redskins nearly played spoiler to the Titans' playoff chances by controlling time of possession with Adrian Peterson and Josh Johnson moving the chains while running the clock down.

I can see them having a similar approach to shorten the game and keep this within one score.

It's no surprise that 80% of the tickets are on the Eagles; there was little chance bettors were going to fade Foles after he went off for 471 and 4 TDs in Week 17.

Take the points here, just be sure to shop around for the best number, as +7 is still available at a number of shops at the time of publication.

This should be a low scoring game, and I really think the Redskins can play spoiler here against an Eagles team that's far from firing on all cylinders. — Sean Koerner

Bet to watch: Under 42

There are a myriad of matchup-specific factors that indicate this could be a low-scoring affair.

• It's a divisional rematch late in the season.
• The matchups boasts the week's slowest combined situation neutral pace.
• Both offenses boast below-average combined explosive play rates in the run and pass game.
• The Eagles' ferocious defensive line could make life very difficult for Johnson and the Redskins' injury-riddled offensive line.
• Neither run game is expected to have overwhelming success based on each offense’s combined adjusted line yards per rush.
• Both teams have mostly done a solid job at taking care of the football, while neither defense has excelled at creating takeaways.

The Redskins haven't scored more than 16 points in a game since November. I’ll take the under and bet against Foles having back-to-back exceptional games.— Hartitz

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.