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Week 17 Betting Market: Sharps Fading Eagles in Must-Win Affair

Dec 27, 2018 9:50 AM EST
Credit:

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Philadelphia Eagles Head Coach Doug Pederson.

  • There have been several large line moves so far, including a 2.5 point move in the Chargers' favor in their visit to Denver (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS.)
  • The Eagles need a win vs. the Redskins (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX,) but sharp bettors are taking Washington and have moved the line off a key number.
  • The Raiders-Chiefs game (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS) should lead to a #1 seed for Kansas City in what could feature one of the highest over/unders in Week 17 history.

Week 17 is a bettor’s worst nightmare.

Betting on the NFL is tough to begin with, but this week can be even harder. Teams in must-win spots usually disappoint against the spread and teams playing for nothing will rest quarterbacks and other key players, making an unpredictable sport even more unpredictable.

There’s been plenty of hefty line moves already, as bettors hope to get the best of the numbers in this wacky end of the season crap shoot.

All data as of Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET. See live betting data here.

Big Line Moves

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5)

Tons of folks will be watching this game, right? The incredibly underwhelming Falcons vs. the Bucs, who were much more fun to watch with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB.

After their win vs. the Taylor Heinicke-led Panthers last week, the Falcons opened as two-point road favorites. They aren’t a super popular pick at 57% of spread bets, but the public has preferred Atlanta more than the pros.

Tampa was hit by steam and also has attracted more than 60% of the money, which has moved them from dog to favorite.

Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) at Denver Broncos

Here’s to holding out hope, eh? The Raiders could beat the Chiefs, which would allow the Chargers to nab that No. 1 seed. Denver was just defeated by those Raiders on Christmas Eve and also lost Phillip Lindsay for the “year” with a wrist injury.

This line opened at LAC -4 on Christmas morning and moved to -6.5 in about five minutes, so there’s only a few folks out there with LAC -4 and -5.5 tickets, as the line skipped over the other numbers in between. Nearly 70% of the early bettors think the Chargers get the job done and win by at least a touchdown.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-6)

The Giants nearly a touchdown favorite vs. the Cowboys?! Rest must be afoot. Or is it?

Key Numbers

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+6.5)

This is a big one. Nick Foles and the Eagles have to win and need some help from Chicago to make the playoffs. Yet, the line has moved against them and towards Josh stinkin’ Johnson since opening.

Seeing as the Eagles are going with the Super Bowl MVP and the Redskins are going with the 2005 San Diego State team MVP, more than 75% of bettors are going with the former.

However, three separate reverse line moves have been triggered on Washington, making it one of the most pros vs. joes-y games of the week.


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Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Tennessee Titans

Do or die. Sunday Night Football. Week 17. Playoff spot ON. THE. LINE.

Speaking of lines, this one just opened on Wednesday morning with the Colts a 2.5-point road favorite before quickly moving to -3.

The Titans still don’t know for sure whether or not Marcus Mariota (stinger) will be able to play or not, but honestly, there probably isn’t too much of a drop-off between him and Blaine Gabbert at this point in terms of value to the spread.

If Mariota can’t play, I would expect this line to move a point or so in Indy’s favor and if he can, it would probably move a half point or point towards Tennessee.

Over/Unders

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (54)

At 54, this over/under is a whopper for Week 17. Dating back to 2003, there have only been three totals of 54 or higher in Week 17, with the record being set two years ago between the Falcons and Saints at 58.5 per Bet Labs.

With K.C. still needing a win to secure the No. 1 seed, they’ll be looking to score some points early. And, of course, looking to not be a sieve defensively.

If the Chiefs let Oakland keep up, Patrick Mahomes and co. will need to stay in the game longer and points could be scored in bunches.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (45.5)

With a spread of 14 points, the Steelers don’t need to do much on their end in their attempt to make the playoffs. They’ll be relying on the Browns to beat the Ravens for that.

Anywho, the under for the Steelers game has been receiving significant action. After opening at 48, this has dropped 2.5 points since opening. Steam hit the under at 47.5 and over 90% of the cash is on it, too.

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