The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) and Cleveland Browns (3-12) meet in NFL Week 17 on Sunday, Dec. 28. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, Ohio. The game will be broadcast live on CBS.
The Steelers are 3-point favorites over the Browns on the spread (Steelers -3), with the over/under set at 33.5. Pittsburgh is a -180 favorite on the moneyline to win outright, while Cleveland is +150 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Steelers vs. Browns prediction for today's Week 17 game.
Steelers vs Browns Prediction
- Steelers vs Browns pick: Browns +3.5 (-120)
My Steelers vs Browns best bet is on Cleveland to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Steelers vs Browns Odds
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 33.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 33.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
Steelers vs Browns NFL Week 17 Preview
For the second year in a row, the Browns are my most profitable team, mainly because I bet them when they play at home.
Over the past three seasons, the Browns have been the most profitable home team in the NFL. On the road, they’re 6-18 against the spread (ATS), the worst mark in the NFL.
The Browns defense plays at a completely different level at home, and now they’re facing a Steelers offense that won’t have DK Metcalf, who’s suspended for the final two games after a confrontation with a fan, plus multiple offensive-line injuries — and the weather forecast is calling for major winds in this game.
Points will be at a premium. We’re talking sustained winds in the 20-30 mph range, with even higher gusts — getting more than a field goal matters.
Metcalf, even when he’s not putting up huge numbers, changes how opposing defenses play the Steelers. Near the goal line or on big downs, safeties cheat to his side, which makes everyone else easier to find — and it’s not like the Steelers have great man-beaters without him.
Who is Aaron Rodgers going to throw the ball to on the outside in this game? Scotty Miller? Adam Thielen? The Steelers also have Roman Wilson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Calvin Austin III (who might also be out) and Ben Skowronek.
The Steelers also have injuries on defense, and we’ve seen their run defense get carved up. Quinshon Judkins being out for the Browns is definitely concerning, because I loved how he looked, but Cleveland can still pound the ball and mix in short passes from Shedeur Sanders.
However, the outcome of this game is likely going to hinge on the Browns defense. I think Myles Garrett could have a monster game here.
Here’s another layer to this game. The Ravens play the Packers on Saturday night. If the Ravens lose, the Steelers clinch the AFC North. That would mean Pittsburgh is playing for nothing on Sunday if that scenario unfolds. It's entirely possible with Lamar Jackson doubtful to play.
The other scenario is the Ravens win, and the Steelers need this game for the division. Even then, historically, teams that need to win versus teams that are eliminated cover only 39% of the time. Teams with nothing to play for cover 61% of the time over the final two weeks of the season. I love backing those teams.
The Browns defense could absolutely ruin the Steelers’ season in that stadium and force them into a must-win Week 18. Cleveland's defense will be fired up for another shot at Rodgers either way.
Add in more potential absences. The Steelers' offensive line is in bad shape. TJ Watt likely isn’t back. Nick Herbig, James Pierre, Brandin Echols — a lot of guys are dealing with injuries. If the division is locked up, I expect them to sit anyone who’s not 100% healthy.
Steelers vs Browns Prediction, Betting Analysis
I’m fine with getting anything more than +3 with the Browns.
If the Ravens lose and the Steelers have the division locked up, maybe this game means nothing — but either way, Pittsburgh is facing Myles Garrett and the home version of the Browns defense with a banged-up offensive line.
Anyone who’s questionable for the Steelers probably sits out this game. They probably won't be dropping Aaron Rodgers back a ton. I don't expect them to take many risks. They might just run into a wall and make this game ugly.
Pick: Browns +3.5 (-120)
Spread
My Browns vs Steelers betting prediction is on Pittsburgh to cover the spread at +3 or better.
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm steering clear of the total in this game.
