With the NFL season in full swing, I have a couple of props for Week 2 of the 2025 NFL season.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 2, including picks for Patriots vs. Dolphins and Broncos vs. Colts.
Nick Giffen's NFL Player Props — Week 2
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson Over 34.5 Rush Yds (-114; DraftKings)
- WR Josh Downs Over 3.5 Receptions (-125; bet365)
Patriots vs Dolphins Player Prop: Rhamondre Stevenson Rush Yards
I would expect a much more neutral game script against the Dolphins, who struggled mightily against the Colts.
Because Rhamondre Stevenson didn't have a chance last week.
Stevenson had only seven carries last week in a loss where the Patriots trailed on 41 of 71 offensive snaps, while only having the lead during just nine snaps.
New England errs on more of a neutral, run-heavy game script, though, so there's the potential for more runs overall today.
Under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, the Patriots tend to run gap-heavy schemes. The Dolphins allowed a higher yards per carry and success rate on carries in last week's loss and last season against zone runs.
Miami also ranked 28th in run-stop win rate in Week 1 compared to the Raiders' seventeenth place ranking in Week 1, suggesting a much better matchup for the Pats.
Even with Morgan Moses questionable, I like this since the Patriots ran the ball zero times to the right side last week on 13 carries. To me, that suggests that they want to run behind fourth overall pick Will Campbell.
Campbell led the team in run-block grades, while left guard Jared Wilson ranked second on the team in gap runs.
All of the Dolphins' right-side linemen and linebackers received a run block grade below 60 in Week 1.
I'm projecting this closer to 41.5 yards, so I think 34.5 hits.
Broncos vs Colts Player Prop: Josh Downs Receptions
This is an awesome buy-low spot on Josh Downs, who only saw three targets on 17 routes in Week 1, especially with all the hype around tight end Tyler Warren.
The Colts played with a leading game script on 65 of 73 plays, which is an absurd rate that's not likely to continue. That means Downs' snap rate should probably bounce back well over the 49% rate he had in Week 1.
With stud cornerback Pat Surtain shadowing top wide receiver Michael Pittman, there are reports that Warren will indeed be the focus of the Colts' passing game.
Perhaps that's coach-speak or misdirection. And even if it's true, the Broncos have one of the highest pressure rates in the NFL since the start of last season.
While he's not great, Daniel Jones is an infinitely better passer than Anthony Richardson while under pressure.
Jones also throws to his first read less than Richardson — especially under pressure, which means he'll have to spread it around more than focus on the first read — directing targets away from Warren.
Last season, against the Broncos, Downs had eight targets, but only three receptions thanks to Richardson's inaccuracy.
We should expect the same kind of volume as Jones spreads it around a bit more.
