WHAT TO KNOW:
- Shawne Merriman likes a Chargers vs Bills AFC title game, and he isn’t writing off the Chiefs.
- Priest Holmes thinks the Chiefs’ grip on the AFC West is tightening, pointing to tackling issues and a real Chargers surge.
- Both say the Chargers are closer than the Bills to a Super Bowl, crediting Jim Harbaugh’s track record and Justin Herbert’s growth.
- Merriman circles Myles Garrett, T. J. Watt, and Nick Bosa as threats to the single season sack record, and Holmes adds Aidan Hutchinson to the list.
Two NFL legends who have lived this stuff, Merriman and Holmes, talk championship windows, rivalries, and what it takes to build a contender. Pulled from The Holmes Stretch on Playmaker and shared with The Action Network, they break down the 2025 Super Bowl race, why the AFC West feels tighter, and which pass rushers could chase the sack record.
Also, Missouri is live for legal sports betting now, meaning Chiefs fans can finally wager on their team, still among the favorites in the Super Bowl.
If you are betting the NFL, check out our Fanatics Sportsbook Promo guide. Availability and terms vary by state.
Super Bowl: Who’s taking it home this year?
Shawne Merriman: I try not to jump out there too much because obviously I'm gonna be a little bit biased.
I played for the Chargers, but you know, I think my two former teams could see each other in the AFC Championship game with the Bills and the Chargers.
That's what I think. And you know, one of those teams is going to win.
I just think that the Chargers right now are playing a level of football and the brand of football that people don't want to play.
And it's bad because everybody's down on the Chiefs like they aren't as good. That's still a very good football team.
It's just the Chargers are better in my opinion right now.
And what happens is, when you dominate so much in a division, at some point those other teams just get better.
Whether it's coaching, players, system, whatever, those other teams just get better. The Chiefs have been so dominant for so long that it's about time the Raiders are better, Broncos are better, right?
So when we played, back when I played, you know, we used to go out and kick the Raiders every year. That was like a stat game for us. And then on my way out, my last year with the Chargers, they beat us actually. And so that is what happens. And I think that yeah, man, I mean, I believe it's going to be the Chargers, the Bills.
Priest Holmes: In that division, especially with the Chiefs and the Chargers, the division has changed.
I think out of the last eight meetings with the Chargers, the Chiefs went 7–1, so I think if you're a betting person, you're going to say in Brazil, I'm going with the Chiefs.
But they showed up. Chargers showed up. They looked impressive. They were strong. The passing game was right on the money every time.
So, it was very difficult for the Chiefs to be able to come back from that. And then also there's a little point in time where the Chiefs showed some of their weaknesses and that's open-field tackling.
We're seeing it time in and time again, especially when you face the Eagles. Open-field tackling on the quarterback. Most teams don't get it figured out.
Will anyone beat the record of 22.5 sacks in a single season?
Shawne Merriman: Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt, Nick Bosa. I mean all these guys are all capable of doing it. Nowadays you have way more opportunity than you've ever had, right?
They're throwing the ball more. When we went to play the Chiefs, they were going to line up and run power of some sort where there's a near-far set.
They're going to run a power formation at least 25-plus times a game, or some sort of power with a counter.
There was always some kind of attack where they were being physical that way. So that part of the game has changed.
It's not happening anymore. I'm not saying they don't run the ball, but we knew that when we came to play the Chiefs, I was going to be sore for a couple days after that.
I knew I was not going to be healthy because they had so many different variations of power that were coming at you.
Whether it's the fullback coming straight downhill and kicking you out, whether it's the guard coming around and kicking you out.
There were so many different variations where you don't have an opportunity by the time you go out and try to pass rush, you're beat up, you're tired from playing the run 30 times already.
The game has changed when it comes to that. With these guys nowadays, you get more opportunities. They're throwing the ball 70-plus percent of the time. And when you're throwing as much as that, guys can go on a first or second down, rest up and come back in second, third down for a pass rush.
I had to go take on a power from T. Rich [Trent Richardson] and then whoever they throw a play action to. I got to get in my pass rush mode. I may have to cover Priest to the flat or something and then line back up.
So, it's a different ball game now where they have more opportunity to go out and get sacked. But it definitely could be one of the top five that I previously named.
Priest Holmes: Shawne, you kind of left off a name when he was naming out some of those defensive players. We've got a guy [Aidan] Hutchinson up in Detroit. What do you think about him?
Shawne Merriman: I'm waiting for him to show how he comes back from that injury. Typically it takes a good year to get back from yourself.
I'm just speaking from experience when I came back from my Achilles and or any major injury physically you feel okay.
It's that mental aspect of being able to do what you used to do without reinjuring yourself, is really the next step in trying to get over it.
So once he feels comfortable enough to where he can get cut blocked or a guy rolls up on his ankle and he doesn't feel like he broke that thing again or something happened. Then, I think he'll be back in the mix as well. He's one of my guys to watch too.
Chargers vs. Bills: Who wins the Super Bowl first?
Shawne Merriman: If you're asking me, I think the Chargers.
I'm talking about the history of the franchise, and more so the history of Jim Harbaugh and what he's done in his career. You can't knock his history. He wins everywhere. Every program he's been to, every organization that year two–five or two–four is where he really stepped on the gas.
And I can tell you he's never had a Justin Herbert.
This offensive line that they got right now, they're big. They're physical.
The defense is playing well. The Bills are going to be extremely good, but at some point they got to get over the hump.
They got to get over the hump. And I believe if they don't get over the hump this year, that team could look very different the following year.
Front office, coach, players.
So you got this short window to win a championship and their window may be closing because they've already had so many good teams for these last few years.
Priest Holmes: Shawne, I think you're spot on. I think the Chargers over the Bills.
Also just the number of years that the Bills have had, they've had that history of being just that close to where they can taste it. They can taste the championship.
Josh is still an amazing guy. He can make things happen. He's a gunslinger.
But I think as far as the Chargers, they're more of a complete team. And then also what we saw there in Brazil against the Chiefs, they definitely showed why they're competitive now.
