Rams vs Seahawks Pick, Odds, NFL Week 1 Prediction

Rams vs. Seahawks odds from Lumen Field have Seattle as 4.5-point favorites in this NFC West Week 1 matchup.

The overall consensus is that this will be a low-scoring affair. The public, sharps and big money are united in taking under 46 points, but that total has since dipped to 45. It’s scary to be the contrarian, but that’s exactly what I am this week as I expect a better offensive showing from the Rams and Seahawks than most think.

Let's find our Rams vs. Seahawks pick and prediction to kick off the season.

The Rams’ offense is a far cry from its recent heyday, but it’s undervalued here. There’s an understandable amount of recency bias after last year’s dismal display, but they should fare better with a healthy Matthew Stafford leading the way this season.

The last time we saw Stafford he looked nothing like his usual self, but there’s little reason to expect him to struggle like that again. He entered 2022 with an elbow injury he dealt with all offseason and clearly wasn’t himself on the field.

After Los Angeles shut him down for the last half of the season, it was forced to roll with John Wolford, Bryce Perkins and Baker Mayfield. So it’s no surprise the offense ranked last in yards per game (280.5) and sixth-worst in points per game (18.1). Now, they get their potential Hall of Fame quarterback back and he has a proven resume of lifting middling talent to better-than-expected results. That’s especially important considering Cooper Kupp’s been declared out with a hamstring injury.

Tyler Higbee is another reason why I like the Rams to put up more points than expected. He was Los Angeles’ preferred option without Kupp a year ago as he had a nearly 22% target share, and is in a great spot against a Seattle defense that surrendered the second-most receiving yards to tight ends last season (1,115).

You shouldn’t sleep on the Rams’ ground attack, either. Cam Akers exploded down the stretch a year ago and averaged 5.46 yards per carry over the team’s final four games. He’ll look to pick up where he left off against a Seahawks defense that gave up the third-most rushing yards in 2022.

The ultimate NFL betting cheat code

Best bets for every game

Our model's biggest weekly edges

Profitable data-driven system picks

SAVE 55% NOW!

On the other side of the ball, Seattle’s offense may have a field day against a Rams defense that’s virtually unrecognizable. In fact, take one look at the depth chart and you may not recognize a single name outside Aaron Donald.

Geno Smith is in a prime spot to pick apart Los Angeles’ secondary. After trading away Jalen Ramsey in the offseason, the Rams list Cobie Durant, Derion Kendrick and Ahkello Witherspoon as their starting cornerbacks. Those are hardly household names and they’ll have to deal with one of the league’s most potent receiving trios — DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba. A case can be made that the Seahawks enter the year with the NFL’s best wide receiving corps, while Pro Football Focus projects the Rams to have the league’s worst secondary.

Nearly 80% of the money and just over 63% of the bets are pouring in on the under, so I don’t blame you for sitting this one out. However, I see this going the other way, mainly due to my expectations of the Rams.

I believe in Stafford and Sean McVay to generate more points than Los Angeles' talent suggests. At the same time, I foresee the Rams’ defense being as atrocious as expected, and this is an especially tough spot for them. Add it all up and there's a clear path to a higher-scoring affair than most anticipate.

I’d play this up to 46.5, and if the line somehow dips below 45.5, I'll jump all over it.