Rovell’s Pick for AFC Championship Game: Bengals vs. Chiefs

Rovell’s Pick for AFC Championship Game: Bengals vs. Chiefs article feature image
Credit:

Picture edited by Matt Roembke. Pictured: Joe Burrow, Darren Rovell, Patrick Mahomes.

When the AFC Championship Game was set, the Bengals as +1.5 underdogs was a joke to me.

Patrick Mahomes with no ability to throw outside of the pocket? Or off platform?

And with how well Joe Burrow did against the Bills — with an incredibly beat up and below-average offensive line — that opening spread felt mispriced.

I initially felt really good locking in the Bengals' spread all the way up to even. And to some respects, that's still an okay pick. The Bengals are going to score buckets of points against the Chiefs' middling defense, bad o line and all.

But now, with Mahomes looking like he'll be at least 75% healthy — if not more — I'm not so sure. The updates out of Kansas City look promising, and with that, the Bengals' spread isn't as attractive.

The must-have app for NFL bettors

The best NFL betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

As long as Mahomes is able to move outside of the pocket and pass the ball accurately, this highest scoring offense in the NFL will also put up plenty of points against a Bengals defense that leaves a lot to be desired.

All of this is to say that the over is the better, safer pick.

Weather won't be a factor, unlike last week, when snow poured down pregame in Kansas City and the two teams in Buffalo were mired by it all game.

And the Chiefs and Bengals might actually be underrated in the over department. KC is 10-8 to the under this season while the Bengals are 10-7, meaning the market might be favoring that side heading into this game.

I caught the total at 46.5 on Tuesday, but with Mahomes' progress, that line has now hit 48.

That's a bad number. A total of 47 is the fourth-most common final score in NFL history, behind just 41, 40 and 51 (in that order).

I'm all about value insurance. I don't think this total is coming down. So buy it down to the key number of 47 at -125 at BetMGM.


BetMGM's bonus offer will give new users will get a $1,000 risk-free bet on their first wager.


About the Author
Darren is a Senior Executive Producer at The Action Network, covering all angles of the sports betting world. He spent two stints at ESPN, from 2000-06 and 2012-18, he regularly wrote for ESPN.com and contributed to ESPN shows, including SportsCenter and Outside The Lines. He also served as a business correspondent for ABC News, where he made appearances on the network’s flagship shows, including “Good Morning America,” “World News Tonight” and “Nightline.” While at CNBC from 2006-2012, Rovell anchored five primetime documentaries, including “Swoosh! Inside Nike,” which was nominated for an Emmy. Rovell also contributed to NBC News, where he earned an Emmy as a correspondent for the network’s Presidential Election coverage.

Follow Darren Rovell @darrenrovell on Twitter/X.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.