Sean Payton to the Broncos: Historical Trends & Betting Notes

Sean Payton to the Broncos: Historical Trends & Betting Notes article feature image

Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: Head coach Sean Payton of the New Orleans Saints

News broke on Tuesday afternoon that the Denver Broncos hired Sean Payton as their new coach, meaning Broncos fans will have one of the best against-the-spread coaches in recent history.

Payton's arrival in Denver means that the Broncos will have to send back a first round pick in 2023 and a second round pick in 2024 to the New Orleans Saints, and they'll get a 2024 third round pick in return.

Interestingly, Ian Rapoport reported that Payton was actually the second choice for the Broncos, who preferred DeMeco Ryans, but lost out to the Houston Texans.

Unbelievable: The #Broncos spent today trying to hire DeMeco Ryans AGAIN today before he recommitted to the #Texans, sources say. When he agreed to terms with the Texans, they moved and finalized Sean Payton.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 31, 2023

However, betting trends indicate that Broncos fans should have no fear, for whatever that is worth.

According to the Action Network's Evan Abrams, Payton was the second-best coach ATS from 2006-2021, trailing only Bill Belichick.

He posted a mark of 133-105-3 ATS for the past 20 years, which would earn him the third-best position.

Additionally, Payton has been particularly profitable as an underdog, with a 50-30-2 ATS mark with that designation. A $10 bettor would be up $185 backing Payton as a dog. Only Mike Tomlin has a bettor record.

In terms of the general outlook for the Broncos, DraftKings shifted their Super Bowl price on the Broncos from 40-1 to 28-1, but it would be surprising to see bettors flock to that number in any meaningful way.

Broncos' Super Bowl Odds @DKSportsbook 🏆

+4000: Before Sean Payton news
+2800: Now

— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) January 31, 2023

The priority for Payton and his Broncos staff now becomes free agency and the NFL Draft, which are both rapidly approaching.

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