Vegas Roundup Week 9: Packers Seeing More Betting Support Than Patriots

Nov 04, 2018 4:25 PM EST
  • There are two marquee games in Week 9 of the NFL season but the game getting the most betting attention so far is Chiefs-Browns.
  • The Packers and Patriots are both public teams but so far bettors are backing the Packers in Vegas.

Even though Rams-Saints and Packers-Patriots are the two biggest games in Week 9 of the NFL season, there’s another game that was getting more attention from bettors during the week.

Kansas City (-9) at Cleveland | Over/Under: 52.5

This was the most-bet game on the card heading into the weekend. While this will likely change when tourist money comes in on Saturday night and Sunday morning, it’s still a  bit of a head=scratcher given the appeal of some of the other games on the slate.

Derek Wilkinson, a supervisor at the Westgate SuperBook, said they took a $30,000 bet on Kansas City from one of their big players.

“All I can say is nobody has any faith in the Browns right now and KC is the hot team so put those two things together and I’m not shocked this game is getting a lot of attention,” Wilkinson said.

Professional money did start to come in on the home underdog on Friday, according to SuperBook supervisor John Murray. According to Murray, he took five-figure bets on Cleveland +8.5 from a couple of sharp groups.

“I think you may see some Cleveland push back by Sunday,” Murray said. “But we are definitely seeing a lot of action on this game. It’s still 87% towards KC but that could change with the sharp money coming in.” When asked if that surprised him, he said, “Nothing surprises me about the NFL anymore.”

Tony Miller, executive director at the Golden Nugget Sportsbook, says they’ll need Cleveland badly.

“I’m surprised we haven’t moved off of our original line at 8.5, we will soon, given the amount of bets we’re getting on the Chiefs,” Miller explained. “Everyone is teasing the number down and I think the bettors will continue to do that. With the disarray in Cleveland with the new coaching staff I don’t see how anyone can bet the Browns right now. On top of that we’re getting a lot of money on the over at 52. That opened at 51.5 and it might go even higher by game time.”

Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Seattle Seahawks | Over/Under: 47.5

The Seahawks have been quietly outperforming their expectations this season given the depleted offensive talent and the high profile loss of Earl Thomas on defense. The same thing can also be said for the Chargers who have overcome key injuries and are flying under the radar in the AFC.

With both teams playing pretty well, it’s no surprise that most shops in Vegas are seeing two-way action.

Duane Colucci, assistant manager at the Rampart Casino sportsbook, said he expects the balanced betting to continue through the weekend.

“So far money is coming in for both sides. The Chargers are one of the top teams in the AFC and the Seahawks are surprisingly coming around,” Colucci explained. “While the line did drop from Seattle -1.5 to -1 here, I don’t expect that to move any further given the balance of the action we’ve gotten already.”

Chuck Esposito, the manager of the sportsbook at Sunset Station, says they’re writing tickets for both sides, as well but at William Hill the Seahawks were getting more support, as 72% of the tickets and 80% of the money was on Seattle as of Friday afternoon.

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints | Over/Under: 57.5

If it weren’t for the Sunday night game this would certainly be the game of the week. It still might be in some people’s perspective.

“This is on pace to be our highest-bet afternoon game of the season,” Murray said.

The Rams won a big game last week vs. Green Bay but they clearly showed some vulnerability and easily could have lost had Green Bay not fumbled a kickoff in the final minutes.

New Orleans looked very impressive beating Minnesota fairly soundly on the road last weekend and criticisms about their questionable defense seem to be quieting down. This is going to be a key game to decide possibly the top team in the NFC. So far the line has gone in both directions with heavy two way action.

Duane Colucci at the Rampart loves this game. “There’s great two way action so far [at the Rampart],” Colucci said. “The money was definitely going the Saints way early as our line opened at New Orleans -1 and now the money is trending towards the Rams as we’re currently at LA -1.5.”

Miller said the Golden Nugget took some sharp money early in the week on the total.

“I think this will continue to go back and forth on the line but we’re getting a lot of interest on the total,” he said. “We opened at 60 and we took some big under bets to knock the number down to 58.5. A lot of that was sharp money. But as we get closer to Sunday, I expect the public to still go over on this game so that number could creep up a bit.”

Esposito says the line movement towards the Rams doesn’t surprise him one bit. “I think the public saw good value here on the Rams and that’s why you’re seeing the line trending in the Rams direction,” he explained.

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (-5) | Over/Under: 56

Green Bay gave the Rams all they could handle in Los Angeles last week. Can the Packers repeat that performance against another Super Bowl contender on Sunday Night Football?

New England has been on cruise control ever since their impressive win against the Chiefs. They usually don’t see any opponent as too easy or too tough so there’s no reason not to expect the same effort as always from the Patriots.

Both the Patriots and Packers are public darlings, so which team is seeing most of the support this weekend?

“The game opened here at -6 and went down to New England -5.5 but we’re a Green Bay house so I’m not surprised at the Packers support here,” Miller explained. “New England is such a tough place to win but we’re seeing a lot of teasers and parlays on this game so it’s going to be a huge decision for us. I’m also surprised we’re not seeing much movement on the total of 56.5 either.”

Colucci said they took some sharp money on the Packers (+6.5) at the jump and moved the line accordingly.

“We opened this line at New England -6.5 and the sharps jumped in right away and pulled the line down to -5.5,” Colucci explained. “I expect this to be a very high volume game for us and I think the outcome could hinge on New England’s running game. I expect more Packers money to come in but at what point will the public find value for the Patriots? I’m still not sure yet.”

Credit:

Jake Roth, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers

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OPEN
CURR
# BETS
45
+3
45
+4
41
-9.5
40.5
-7
59
-14.5
60
-13
47
+9.5
46.5
+9.5
43.5
-11
43
-10.5
46.5
-7
46
-6
54
-3
55
-3
48
-3
47.5
-3
47
-3
47.5
-3
38
+3
37.5
+3
44
-13
45
-12
51
-10
51
-10
47.5
+3.5
47
+3
48.5
-4.5
48
-3
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