The Best Steelers vs. Browns Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Odell Beckham Jr.
- We've identified two of the best prop bets for Thursday Night Football featuring the Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns.
- You'll find our picks on receiving props for Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr. and Steelers WR James Washington.
NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Props tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
Note that unders have typically done the best in our tool. Last season unders were profitable even with grades below 10, with all hitting at a 59.0% rate. Don’t take our word for it, though: Our tool keeps track of its record at all times, so you can query performance of any time frame.
Steelers vs. Browns Prop Bets & Picks
Let’s take a look at three props worth considering for the Thursday Night Football contest between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns.
Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr.
THE PICK: Under 65.5 Receiving Yards (+115)
Betting against Beckham is definitely a scary proposition. He’s one of the most talented receivers in the league, and he’s capable of turning a routine catch into a long touchdown on any play.
That said, he’s struggled so far this season, averaging just 70.2 receiving yards per game — the lowest mark of his career. He’s also had 57 or fewer receiving yards in five of his first nine games. Beckham is still highly involved in the Browns’ offense — his target market share of 25.3% ranks sixth in the league — but for one reason or another, he’s struggled to develop chemistry with Baker Mayfield.
Things don’t figure to get any easier tonight. The Steelers currently rank fourth in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, and they’ve allowed 218 or fewer passing yards in five of their past six games.
I like the idea of grabbing this prop at better than even money, but it starts to lose value around -110.
Steelers WR James Washington
THE PICK: Over 2.5 Receptions (+110)
Washington is far from the top receiving option from the Steelers, but he’s still getting plenty of opportunities on a weekly basis. They’ve spread the ball around with Mason Rudolph under center. Five players saw at least six targets last week, and no one on the Steelers owns a market share of greater than 19.4% this season.
Washington has seen at least six targets in three of his past four games, and his seven targets last week was tied for the most on the team. He also has at least three catches in three of his past four games.
This is another prop that has some appeal at better than even money. That said, Washington has a catch rate of just 52.6% this season, so we’re basically banking on him getting around six targets. I would play the over up to -110.