The Tennessee Titans (0-4) and Arizona Cardinals (2-2) will face off in Week 5 on Sunday, Oct. 5. Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. The game will broadcast on CBS.
The Cardinals are favored by -7.5 on the spread (Cardinals -7.5) with the over/under set at 41.5. The Cardinals are -425 moneyline favorites; the Titans are +325 to pull off the upset.
After a pair of painful losses via late field goals, the Cardinals look to get right in a favorable matchup against a Titans team that has lost 10 straight games dating back to last season.
Let's get into my Titans vs Cardinals prediction for Sunday afternoon.
Titans vs Cardinals Prediction
- Titans vs Cardinals pick: Under 41.5 Points (-110 | Play to -120)
My Titans vs Cardinals best bet is Under 41.5 points, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Titans vs Cardinals Odds
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 41 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 41 -110o / -110u | -425 |
Titans vs Cardinals Week 5 Preview
Tennessee Titans Betting Preview: Callahan on Hot Seat
Brian Callahan did not exactly inherit a powerhouse roster when he was appointed head coach of the Titans last January.
However, the team's results under the former Bengals offensive coordinator have been drastically worse than expected. This point is well reflected by the team's results versus the spread: they are just 3-18 ATS under Callahan.
It's probably safe to say that the vast majority of Titans fans are now hoping to see Callahan relieved of his duties. If his side doesn't show some fight with a more organized performance in this matchup, this could certainly be his last game as head coach.
Offensive coordinator Nick Holz's offense has looked largely dysfunctional, and while first overall draft pick Cam Ward has been a disappointment, it seems quite fair to say his team has not offered him much chance of success.
Tennessee ranks dead last in scoring, with only 51 points this season, and per PFF, holds the worst offensive rating in the league by a wide margin (54.8).
Ward has completed just 51.2% of his passes and ranks 32nd in EPA/play this season. The Titans have allowed the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL (45.6%), and Ward has already been sacked 17 times.
PFF power-rated the Titans' offensive line as the third-worst unit in the league this week after they allowed 17 pressures on 30 passing plays versus the Texans.
The overall ineffectiveness of the Titans' offensive line has carried into the running game as the team has managed just 87 rushing yards per game. Tennessee ranks 25th in run-block win rate, making life tough for Tony Pollard, who grades as the 35th-most efficient running back this season, per PFF.
The Titans have also been shaky defensively, but the team's complete lack of offensive success still appears to be the largest cause of their 28th rank in points allowed per game. Tennessee ranks 27th in average time of possession and its offense ranks last in first downs per game and third-down conversion rate.
The Titans defense ranks 17th in DVOA and has allowed 2.6 points per drive. They have faced a fairly tough schedule of opposing offenses. Their opponents hold an average offensive power score ranking of 11.5.
Overall, the Titans are considered to have faced the 11th-toughest schedule thus far.
Arizona Cardinals Betting Preview: Mediocre in Every Sense
After a lethargic Texans offense was able to carve up the Titans last week, a matchup versus Drew Petzing's Cardinals' offense still doesn't feel too cushy, even if Arizona has been quite mediocre this season.
Arizona's offense ranks 26th in yards per play, 19th in third-down conversion rate and 20th in red-zone efficiency.
Kyler Murray ranks 23rd in QBR and the Cardinals rank 16th in EPA/play. The Cardinals also hold an explosive play percentage of just 3.8%, which is the third-lowest mark in the NFL.
Murray and the Cardinals took advantage of soft matchups versus the Saints and Panthers to get off to a 2-0 start, but have struggled offensively over the last two weeks in tougher divisional matchups versus the 49ers and Seahawks, averaging 3.2 yards per play in the first half of those games.
Though James Conner and Trey Benson were not overly dominant this season, the Cardinals' backfield looks pretty shaky with Michael Carter and Emari Demercado set to split the workload — both grade out as well below-average running backs.
The Cardinals did well to keep both of the last two matchups close while the offense struggled to get going in the first half of each game.
Arizona's defense currently ranks 16th in DVOA and has allowed the 10th-lowest third-down conversion rate in the NFL, limiting opposing quarterbacks to a 54.9 passer rating on third down. It also ranks 15th in yards allowed per play and has allowed just 1.9 points against per drive.
The Cardinals' defensive line holds the fifth-highest pass-rush win rate in the NFL and the seventh-highest run-stop win rate.
Titans vs Cardinals Prediction, Betting Analysis
It's been downright shocking just how bad Callahan's Titans have performed against the spread. As a result, it's no surprise to see the Cardinals are a popular bet — though the line movement ahead of this game does suggest some sharp money has been interested in the Titans.
This feels like a volatile spot — the Titans have shown signs of disinterest late in the last two matchups and players may be having a hard time buying into what Callahan is selling right now.
With that in mind, I'm still willing to bet this will come in under the total of 41.5 points in a game that should not be overly fast-paced.
The Titans' offensive play has been completely dreadful, and it's hard to imagine that will change versus a Cardinals defense that has played quite well over the last two weeks. Tennessee's defensive play has not been great by any means, but it has defended the red zone and limited third-down conversions at league-average rates.
The Cardinals offense has struggled to create explosive plays both through the air and on the ground. The run game, in particular, could see that trend hold true in this matchup.
At -120 or better, I see value in betting this matchup to be somewhat of a slog and come in under.
Pick: Under 41.5 Points (-120, bet365)
Spread
While backing teams when they appear to be playing at their absolute floor can provide value in the NFL, I just can't get there on the Titans.
I'm hopeful that Tennessee's defense is capable of making this a low-scoring slog, but I also would not be surprised to see the Titans come in under their low team total of 14.5.
Moneyline
There does not appear to be much value in betting either team to win outright.
Over/Under
As outlined, my favorite play from this matchup is betting the game to come in Under 41.5 points.
