Texans vs Jaguars Odds, Picks, Prediction

Texans vs Jaguars Odds, Picks, Prediction article feature image

Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images. Pictured: Trevor Lawrence.

  • The Jaguars are 7-point favorites today against the Texans.
  • Both teams have shown signs of improvement this season, although Houston is still winless.
  • Phillip Kall previews the game and makes his betting pick below.

Texans vs. Jaguars Odds

Sunday, Oct. 9
1 p.m. ET
Texans Odds
-110o / -110u
Jaguars Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

The Jaguars have been a fun and exciting surprise this season. After a Week 1 loss in Washington, they blew out two potential playoff teams and then jumped out to a 14-0 lead against the Eagles before ultimately losing.

Now, Jacksonville is a touchdown favorite with serious expectations attached. We'll see how that changes the Jags' attitude and demeanor, especially early in the game.

The Texans have been a bit of a pleasant surprise, as well. After constantly getting blown out last season, they've been able to keep games interesting this season. Three of their four games were one-score affairs and in the fourth, they fought back from a 20-point deficit to make it interesting.

Houston has a long way to go in their rebuild but at least they have managed to make their games watchable. (We're looking at you, Denver.)

Texans vs. Jaguars Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Texans and Jaguars match up statistically:

Texans vs. Jaguars DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA306
Pass DVOA297
Rush DVOA2312
Overall DVOA1227
Pass DVOA816
Rush DVOA2529
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Before their matchup against the Eagles, the Jaguars’ offense averaged 375 yards of offense and had just one turnover. There's no doubt the Philly game was a mess offensively after a fast start. Weather was a factor in that game, though, and it won't be in Jacksonville this week.

The change from Urban Meyer to Doug Pederson has been a complete revelation for the Jacksonville offense and Trevor Lawrence. Pederson has adjusted his offense to optimally fit the personnel that he has, which has led to the Jaguars ranking 10th in points per drive and 10th in percentage of drives that end in a score.

Lawrence has been up in every statistical category. His completion percentage is up to 66% from 60%. His yards per attempt is up to 7.1 yards per attempt from 6.0. And he already has eight passing touchdowns compared to 12 as a rookie.

Lawrence still has his ups and downs but is looking much more like the franchise quarterback Jacksonville hoped it drafted.

The defensive side of the ball has been the surprising turnaround for Jacksonville. Last year, Jacksonville was bottom five in yards per drive, points per drive, and turnovers. This year, it's top 13 in all those categories. 

For the Texans, their improvement has been more in terms of watchability.

The change starts with the play of rookie running back Dameon Pierce, who has provided a stable run game to make things easier on Davis Mills. Last season, no Houston running back had more than 3.5 yards per carry and 430 rushing yards. Through four games Pierce is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and has 313 rushing yards. 

The threat of the run has helped open the vertical passing game for the Texans. This has been to the benefit of second-year receiver, Nico Collins. Collins, who might only have 11 catches but is averaging 18.8 per grab. This has given Houston the ability to flip the field and score quickly. Against the Chargers, the Texans' 17-0 run late in the game was fueled by chunk plays, as their drives traversed 190 yards in 13 plays.

Defensively, the Texans have also taken a step forward this season. The biggest difference has been in the red zone, where they rank ninth in touchdown rate allowed per Pro Football Reference. This has projected their defense from 27th in points allowed last year to 17th so far. They still have a long way to go in this rebuild as they are 29th in yards allowed. However, the bend but don’t break style is working for them this year.

Betting Picks

Coming into the year, the Jaguars were a sneaky fun pick to win the AFC South and have lived up to the hype. Even at 2-2, the Jaguars rank third in point differential at +38 and are currently tied for the division lead. The offense has been balanced and is thriving, and it could've done better last week against the Eagles with reasonable weather.

Houston, on the other hand, has played as you would hope a rebuilding team would. Each week some young players flash and provide optimism for the future. The Texans remain competitive in games so fans don’t rebel against the organization.

While Houston has kept games close, its bend-but-don’t-break defense might be meeting its match. Jacksonville’s biggest problem has been getting the ball rolling on drives, ranking 20th in total yards. Once it gets rolling, though, good things happen, which has them at sixth in points scored. 

Jacksonville will recover after a tough loss in Philly and show their point differential is no fluke.

FanDuel Quickslip: Jaguars -7 | Bet to -7.5

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