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Von Miller Out for Season: How Bills’ Super Bowl, AFC Odds Have Changed

Von Miller Out for Season: How Bills’ Super Bowl, AFC Odds Have Changed article feature image
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Picture by Getty Images. Pictured: Von Miller.

Von Miller has been ruled out for the season after having surgery on a torn ACL, ESPN reported on Wednesday.

The six-year, $120 million pass rusher had proved to be vital all year for Buffalo, sealing games late with key sacks or tackles for loss and drawing in second or third blockers to free up lanes for his teammates.

Miller suffered the injury — thought to have been a strain until Wednesday — against the Lions on Thanksgiving Day. Detroit is one of a handful of teams that plays on turf — something that has become a point of contention between the NFLPA and the league for years.

Players allege that turf creates unneeded strain on their joints and ligaments, leading to more injuries. A study published by the NFLPA says turf creates a 32% higher rate of non-contact knee injuries and a 69% increased rate of non-contact foot or ankle injuries compared to grass.

The NFL refutes those claims.

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The Bills will now go forward without their best pass rusher, but the market seems to have already baked that possibility into its assessment of the team.

Buffalo is still the Super Bowl favorite across the market, buoyed by a Week 13 that vaulted the Bills back into the AFC’s No. 1 seed after the Dolphins and Chiefs lost. Buffalo also thumped New England last Thursday by a score of 24 to 10.

At FanDuel, odds didn’t change from +370. The Chiefs are the second-shortest favorites at +460 and the Eagles are +500.

At DraftKings, the odds are still at +350. The Chiefs and Eagles are tied at +500 at that sportsbook.

And at BetMGM, the Bills are still +375 favorites.

2022 Super Bowl Odds After Von Miller Ruled Out for Season

This lack of change may also be attributed to how well the Bills pass rush did against the Patriots in Miller’s absence. Per ESPN, Mac Jones experienced the second-highest pressure rate of his career despite only one Bills blitz. A number of Buffalo pass rushers stepped up. And lest we forget that this was the No. 2 defense in the league last season — without Miller.

All the aforementioned sportsbooks opened the Bills at roughly +600 favorites to win it all during the preseason. The Chiefs leapfrogged them in the odds rankings after taking the No. 1 seed in the AFC in November before falling to the No. 2 seed this week.

As far as the AFC odds market, that remains unchanged too.

The Bills are favorites across the board. You can bet them at FanDuel here.

2022 AFC Champion Odds After Von Miller Ruled Out for Season

And while the Bills were roughly -200 favorites to win the division prior to the season, that got as low as -180 amid midseason troubles and losses to the Jets and Vikings.

With the Bills on a roll again, those odds have fallen to numbers such as -500 (BetMGM), -410 (FanDuel) and -400 (DraftKings).

Those odds, too, remained unchanged across the marketplace after the Miller news.

2022 AFC East Odds After Von Miller Ruled Out for Season

The Miller news comes roughly a month after quarterback Josh Allen sprained his elbow in a loss to the Jets. Allen has been nursing the injury since then — and hasn’t looked quite 100% — but has labored through the ailment to positive results.

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