Sonny Banks: Why Over/Unders in Pats-Bills & Seahawks-Cardinals Provide Betting Value


Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tre’Davious White

Sep 29, 2019, 12:15 AM EDT
  • Sonny Banks (aka @so_money_sports) details the three NFL games he bet right away, including Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills and Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

For those who have followed @So_Money_Sports on Twitter, he’s now bringing his written analysis to The Action Network.

Those of you who follow my bets (for free) in The Action Network app have probably noticed I regularly bet NFL openers on Sunday afternoon/evening. The reason? The NFL betting market is extremely efficient overall — as the games get closer, the market starts to push the odds to where they should be — but you can actually find spreads and over/unders that are a few points off when you’re targeting openers.

I did just that on Sunday, playing three games at the open:

  • Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers
  • New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
  • Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Below I’ll detail the bets I made, all of which still have value when compared to my power ratings.

Let’s dive in.

Odds as of Tuesday at 2 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

  • Opening odds: Packers -3.5 / 47.5
  • Current odds: Packers -4.5 / 45
  • Date/time: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET

The market is starting to overvalue Green Bay, as evidenced by this spread moving from 3.5 to 4.5 early. The Eagles injuries, notably WR Alshon Jeffery and CB Ronald Darby, are contributing to this, as well.

Don’t get me wrong: The Packers’ defense is legit, and you can tell the market has caught onto that with a 2.5-point downward line move on the over/under early on. At the current number of 45, I won’t be getting involved with the total, but I have made a bet on the spread.

The lookahead line for this game was Packers -2, and the market’s reluctance to back the Eagles after their unlucky loss to the Lions, combined with their injuries, has pushed this to an inflated 4.5.

Where the line goes from here will depend on who is healthy for the Eagles, but I have moved on the 4.5 with the expectation that a couple of their offensive guys will return. (From the sounds of Doug Pederson’s comments on Monday, I’d expect Jeffery and LT Jason Peters to suit up.)

My Line: Eagles +2.5
Pick: Eagles +4.5 (-110)

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

  • Opening odds: Patriots -7.5 / 43.5
  • Current odds: Patriots -7 / 42.5
  • Date/time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

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