The Buffalo Sabres (32-18-5) and Tampa Bay Lightning (35-14-4) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:30 p.m. EST at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Fla. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Lightning are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-100o / -118u). The Lightning are a -210 favorite to win outright, while the Sabres are +171 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Sabres vs. Lightning predictions and NHL picks.
Sabres vs. Lightning Odds, Pick
| Sabres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -141 | 6.5 -100o / -118u | +171 |
| Lightning Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 6.5 -100o / -118u | -210 |
- Sabres vs. Lightning Spread: Lightning -1.5 (+120 ), Sabres +1.5 (-141)
- Sabres vs. Lightning Over/Under: 6.5 (-100o / -118u)
- Sabres vs. Lightning Moneyline: Sabres +171, Lightning -210
Sabres vs. Lightning Preview
Buffalo Sabres
The Sabres are coming off a strong 5-3 win down south last night against the Florida Panthers, so this battle in Tampa has the chance to be a doozy.
Goaltender Alex Lyon, who has been a driving force for this remarkable season for Buffalo, started last night so I'd anticipate Colten Ellis to take the crease tonight.
Ellis takes over for Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who was recently moved to IR yesterday. And for someone who's a rookie netminder, he's performed admirably. In 12 games played, he's posting an .898 SV% and a 0.1 GSAx, which isn't dynamic, but for Ellis, it's just right.
Beyond goaltending, the Sabres 5-on-5 game in the month of January certainly took a hit. They're playing to a bottom-tiered 47.51 xGF%, as well as a seventh-worst 3.09 xGA/60.
Currently, the jury is out on whether Zach Benson will play, as he suffered an upper body injury last night, but his absence offsets due to the elite play from Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, and Rasmus Dahlin.
Buffalo has always been that team that had all the talent in the world, but the execution was incredibly poor. You wonder due to its below-average metrics that if these wins are a measure of good luck, because with the Olympic break coming soon, the Sabres will be a team to look out for.
Tampa Bay Lightning
What a remarkable comeback during the Stadium Series we had seen from the Lightning.
Tampa came back from being down 5-1 to inevitably make the comeback against the Bruins to pull off a 6-5 win in a shootout.
A lot of it was due to superstar Nikita Kucherov, who continues to be a point-getting machine, having a hand in four of the five goals Tampa had scored to tie things up, including the game-tying marker.
Concerning 5-on-5 play, it's hard to find a team that's on a hotter run than Tampa — which is why it was so surprising to see the Bolts go down by such a wide margin on Sunday.
Defensively, they were the best in the league, but after Sunday, they're down to a measly fourth-best, with a 2.21 xGA/60 since January 1. On the offensive end, it's been just as good, holding a 57.78 xGF%.
I think the most surprising part of Sunday was how easily pucks were getting past goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. He may not be the stone wall he was five years ago, but in this stretch, he was on a torrid tear, playing to a .937 SV% and a 10.3 GSAx.
And that's including the five goals he let up against Boston.
Sabres vs. Lightning Prediction
As good as the Sabres have been down the stretch, they're walking into the lion's den.
With a rookie netminder and a team coming off a back-to-back that is squaring off against a team that is riding the high of the Stadium Series, I worry this may get ugly.
Luckily, the +130 value for a Lightning routing looks tantalizing.
Should Tampa opt for its backup, I'd be looking to hedge with a 60 Minute Moneyline win, but I truly think Tampa outmatches the Sabres here.
Buffalo's play has been drooping, and with Ellis at the helm, I don't foresee its luck to continue tonight.
Pick: Lightning -1.5
