The Colorado Avalanche and Minnesota Wild meet in Game 3 of the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 9:00 p.m. EDT at Grand Casino Arena in St. Paul, Minn. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Avalanche are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (+106o / -130u). The Avalanche are a -130 favorite to win outright, while the Wild are +108 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Avalanche vs. Wild predictions and NHL picks.
Avalanche vs. Wild Odds, Pick
| Avalanche Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +176 | 6.5 106o / -130u | -130 |
| Wild Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -220 | 6.5 106o / -130u | +108 |
- Avalanche vs. Wild Spread: Avalanche -1.5 (+176), Wild +1.5 (-220)
- Avalanche vs. Wild Over/Under: 6.5 (+106o / -125u)
- Avalanche vs. Wild Moneyline: Avalanche -130, Wild +108
Avalanche vs Wild Kalshi Odds
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Avalanche vs. Wild Preview
Colorado Avalanche
Through the first two games, the Avalanche have taken away pretty much every strength Minnesota thought it had coming into this series.
The Wild were able to out-physical Dallas in the first round, but Colorado has won that battle so far, and it’s been directed specifically at Minnesota's top players, showing up in the box score with Matt Boldy goalless through two games.
The nine-goal outburst in Game 1 was also enough to shake the Wild's confidence in red-hot Jesper Wallstedt, prompting the decision to go with Filip Gustavsson in Game 2.
At the forefront is Nathan MacKinnon, already with six points through two games, adding just another factor that makes Colorado just about impossible to beat when playing at this level.
The Avalanche own a 57.71% expected goal share and a +14 goal differential this playoffs, and have averaged 13.5 high-danger chances with 14 goals through two games against Minnesota.
The Wild were one of the stronger defensive teams in the league this season, and while injuries have played a role, Colorado has made it look easy regardless.
In net, Scott Wedgewood had a strong bounce-back in Game 2 after the Wild were able to solve him for six goals in the opener. He’s played to a +3.2 GSAx and .923 SV% across six playoff starts. If Minnesota wants back into this series, getting to Wedgewood again can’t hurt, though Colorado has any number of ways to win games.
Minnesota Wild
If the Wild are going to find a positive, it's that they have played Colorado fairly evenly at 5-on-5, with a near 50-50 split in expected goal share.
The biggest issue continues to be the penalty kill, where Minnesota is sitting at 59.4% this postseason overall and has allowed three goals on seven opportunities through two games this series.
Colorado's power play ranked 27th during the regular season, so there was some optimism the Wild could avoid the same problems that plagued them against Dallas in the first round. That has not come to fruition, and the absences of Joel Eriksson Ek and Jonas Brodin have not helped.
Brodin is expected to miss extended time, while Eriksson Ek could return tonight after practicing in a limited capacity Friday, though it sounds far from certain. His absence hurts on both ends. Beyond the penalty kill, he is a key piece on an already struggling power play that has gone just 2-for-26 over the last seven games.
Then there is the goaltending situation. Even after Jesper Wallstedt allowed eight goals in Game 1, going to Filip Gustavsson in Game 2 after he had not played in three weeks was a questionable call. He looked shaky from the start, surrendering goals on the first two shots he faced.
This is maybe more a matter of personal opinion, but Wallstedt should draw the start tonight. Some damage has already been done to the mood of both goalies, and this might be the last chance to salvage the edge the Wild had in net given how well Wallstedt played over the last couple of months.
Setting aside the Game 1 outing, he posted a +3.7 GSAx and .924 SV% in the first round and vastly outplayed Gustavsson down the stretch of the regular season, playing to a +5.4 GSAx and .930 SV% over his last 10 starts.
Avalanche vs. Wild Prediction
Obviously this is as close to a must-win as you can get without it being an elimination game, and Minnesota did play a little better as a whole in Game 2, but not by much. It's hard to justify not backing a decent moneyline price on Colorado here.
The Wild are banged up at key positions, with Eriksson Ek and Brodin both nursing injuries, which only compounds the issues on an already struggling special teams unit.
Eriksson Ek is also by far Minnesota's most reliable faceoff man, and that is not a minor detail for a team that ranked 30th in the category at 46.64% this season. The four-day break came at a good time and could allow Eriksson Ek to return tonight, but how close to 100% he will be remains a question.
On top of everything else, Colorado has been the more physical team through two games, which is not something many would have predicted coming in. The Avalanche are beating the Wild at their own game, and Minnesota has not found an answer for it yet.
There is real talent on this Wild roster and I do believe in this team, but you need everything clicking to beat Colorado, and Minnesota is running short on things going its way.
Pick: Avalanche Moneyline (-130, FanDuel)
