The Dallas Stars (6-3-1) and Tampa Bay Lightning (4-4-2) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Fla. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Lightning are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6 (-105o / -115u). The Lightning are a -150 favorite to win outright, while the Stars are +125 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Stars vs. Lightning predictions and NHL picks.
Stars vs. Lightning Odds, Pick
| Stars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 6 -105o / -115u | +125 |
| Lightning Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 6 -105o / -115u | -150 |
- Stars vs. Lightning Spread: Stars +1.5 (-205), Lightning -1.5 (+170)
- Stars vs. Lightning Over/Under: 6 (-105o / -115u)
- Stars vs. Lightning Moneyline: Stars +125, Lightning -150
Stars vs. Lightning Preview
Dallas Stars
What a fascinating start to the season it’s been for the Stars.
Win three in a row, lose four in a row, then win three in a row all over again.
Typically, I wouldn’t be too concerned about the Stars, as they have one of the deeper rosters in the NHL, but it’s who’s coaching the team that turns me off.
We saw what happened in the playoffs last season, when Pete DeBoer essentially threw Jake Oettinger under the bus in Game 7, and it turns out that cost him his job. So, Glen Gulutzan gets opportunity number three to be a head coach.
For the time being, Dallas has reeked of mediocrity on 5-on-5 offense, ranking 18th in expected goals with a 50.12 xGF%, with the three-headed monster in Mikko Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston, and Jason Robertson.
Luckily, though, the defense has held on well. Miro Heiskanen and the new $10 million man Thomas Harley have helped the defense get to a 10th-best 2.44 xGA/60.
Oettinger has been solid to start the season, but nothing spectacular. But hopefully for him and the Stars, it is that the 1-0 shutout against the Capitals was a sign of things to come.
In eight starts thus far, he’s posting a .909 SV% and a 4.7 GSAx.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The alarms were sounding off in Tampa due to the uncharacteristic start to the season, as the Lightning were experiencing.
The Bolts started with a 1-4-2 record; however, since then, they’ve secured three consecutive wins – including a convincing 5-2 win on the road in Nashville.
Sometimes it feels like Tampa Bay hides in the shadows these days, but this is still a very dangerous team. Nikita Kucherov is playing his mind out, while Anthony Cirelli and Jake Guentzel are lighting up the boards.
Tampa’s 5-on-5 offense has been superior as well. So far this season, it’s ranked second with a 56.92 xGF%, and defensively, it’s held on strong with a 2.35 xGA/60.
Of course, when you have a dynamo playmaker and scorer like Kucherov, you’d think that the Lightning’s power play is humming, but they’re actually struggling mightily, scoring at only a 14.3% clip. However, their penalty kill has done just fine, succeeding 88.2% of the time.
Former Vezina Trophy winner Andrei Vasilevskiy hasn’t had his best season, and even though he’s riding a two-game win streak, there’s certainly some cause for concern.
The difference is that last season he went through a similar dry spell in October, and he ended up being just fine. Either way, he has played a lot of hockey in his 12-year career, so perhaps we shouldn’t rule anything out just yet for the Big Cat.
Stars vs. Lightning Prediction
To keep it simple and sweet, this is a power duel with not just two of the best teams in the NHL, but two of the best goaltenders as well.
Tampa’s record may not show it just yet, but the Bolts are still a problem in the league until further notice, and it’s hard to argue with Dallas’ depth.
Both defenses have held on strong to start the season, and I see no reason why that won't continue tonight.
I think we’re going to have a close one, so let’s ride with the under.
Pick: Under 6 (-115)
