The Edmonton Oilers (1-2-0) and Anaheim Ducks (2-1-0) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 9:30 p.m. ET at Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Oilers are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 7.5 (+138o / -170u). The Oilers are a -137 favorite to win outright, while the Ducks are +114 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Oilers vs. Ducks predictions and NHL picks.
Oilers vs. Ducks Odds, Pick
| Oilers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +168 | 7.5 138o / -170u | -137 |
| Ducks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 7.5 138o / -170u | +114 |
- Oilers vs. Ducks Spread: Oilers -1.5 (+168), Ducks +1.5 (-210)
- Oilers vs. Ducks Over/Under: 7.5 (+138o / -170u)
- Oilers vs. Ducks Moneyline: Oilers -137, Ducks +114
Oilers vs. Ducks Polymarket Odds
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Oilers vs. Ducks Preview
Edmonton Oilers
Connor McDavid finally got on the scoresheet in Game 3 with a two-point night that included a power-play goal.
That checked off two items on Edmonton's list of concerns. The goal also marked the first time the Oilers connected on the man advantage this postseason, moving them to 1-for-8.
Unfortunately, that's about where the positives end. Edmonton was outshot 20-7 in the first period and didn't register an even-strength shot on goal with McDavid on the ice in the period. He finished a minus-4 on the night and is now a minus-6 in the series.
The Draisaitl, Podkolzin, and Kapanen combination has been the only line generating much of anything, posting a 64.76% expected goal share in Game 3. McDavid, meanwhile, spent the bulk of his shifts alongside Matt Savoie and Jack Roslovic, a trio that managed just a 22.87% expected goal share.
Head coach Kris Knoblauch briefly bumped Ryan Nugent-Hopkins up to McDavid's line, which makes you wonder if the injury McDavid sustained in Game 2 is still bothering him. He hasn't looked like his usual self or impacted the game the way he typically does, and the Nugent-Hopkins shift seemed almost like an attempt to give McDavid a linemate who could carry the puck into the zone.
Even after allowing six goals, I don't think Connor Ingram has been playing all that poorly. He kept Edmonton in the game during the first period while being peppered with 20 shots and held up well through the first two periods.
The bigger issue is that Edmonton's defense surrenders so many quality looks. When the structure isn't there in front, it's only a matter of time before the goaltending breaks down, too. Ingram made a huge stop late in the second to keep things tied 3-3, but he couldn't come up with others when it mattered most. That's been the story of this series.
I don't view Tristan Jarry as the better option, but if Edmonton is going to shake things up in net, now might be the moment to do it, just to change the mindset.
Jarry has six appearances since March with a .845 SV% in those outings and a -9.5 GSAx over his last 10. Ingram has posted a .849 SV% and -3.0 GSAx this series. From a gambling perspective, I don't think it matters much who gets the nod, given how Edmonton's defense has hung its goalies out to dry, though a shakeup might at least produce a short-term spark.
Anaheim Ducks
This series has been absolute chaos, and the Ducks have been on the right side of it for two straight games, piling up 13 total goals while running away with a 40-shot, seven-goal win in Game 3.
Net-front presence is huge in playoff hockey, and the Ducks are doing a fantastic job getting bodies there. Mikael Granlund tipped one home in Game 3 and had another waved off, while Mason McTavish scored on a deflection from a bit further out.
The home-plate slot has been their bread and butter. The Ducks have generated 27 shots from that area, just two behind Carolina and Buffalo for the most in the postseason before yesterday, and have cashed in on eight of them. That's more than any other team and good for a playoff-leading 29.6 shooting percentage.
If you're digging into the anytime goal scorer market, there's value worth considering. Alex Killorn (+390) and Leo Carlsson (+180) each have two goals from that area, tied for the most in the playoffs, and Mikael Granlund (+280) looked like he made a clear point of getting there in Game 2, as mentioned.
Maybe more importantly, the Ducks are doing an unreal job containing Connor McDavid. He had a goal and an assist in Game 3, but was largely ineffective beyond that.
A lot of that credit goes to two players in particular: Jackson LaCombe, who leads the team with six points, and the "McDavid stopper," Tim Washe. I say that a little tongue-in-cheek, but through the first two games, when McDavid was held off the scoresheet, Washe was on the ice for 17:43 of McDavid's 30:17 total ice time. At six-foot-three and 212 pounds, he's a big frame to disrupt things, and head coach Joel Quenneville has placed a lot of trust in him. To his credit, he's delivered.
The organization as a whole has done a great job pairing young talent with veterans, and Coach Q has an unbelievable feel for matchups and situations, getting the most out of his lineup and putting players in the best position to succeed.
Another big factor has been discipline. Anaheim has stayed out of the box for the most part, allowing just two power-play opportunities in each of Games 1 and 3, and giving up only one goal on the kill in the series.
In net, Lukas Dostal is hanging in. He carries a -3.2 GSAx, the lowest mark of any goaltender this postseason, along with a .874 SV%. If nothing else, he's been consistent, allowing four goals in each game while stopping 83 of the 95 shots he's faced.
The hope is that Dostal is the future in Anaheim's crease for years to come. He signed a five-year, $32.5 million extension last offseason, so unless his play really drops off, he'll have a long leash and continue to get the call.
Oilers vs. Ducks Prediction
This series feels a little like the NHL equivalent of the old Pac-12 After Dark for all you college football bettors out there, with 28 goals already scored through the first three games.
Nothing suggests that pace is going to slow down.
The Oilers don't look like they can stop much of anything, giving up 27 shots from the high-danger area, and Connor Ingram hasn't been able to come up with saves as games wear on. He's stopping just 70.4% of those high-danger chances and carries an .849 SV% overall in the series.
Dostal has been the better of the two, but he's still allowed four goals in each of the three games. Edmonton's offense clearly has enough to keep pace with the total, and scoring in bunches may be its only path to avoiding a 3-1 hole.
I've also really liked what I've seen from Anaheim's offense. Between the lineup clicking and Coach Q's knack for finding matchups, the chances should keep coming.
All things considered, the total has already been blown past twice, with 10-plus goals in each of the last two games, and I expect a similar script on Sunday.
I'm embracing the chaos and taking the plus-money over at 7.5 in what should be another fun one to cap off the night.
Pick: Over 7.5 (+138, FanDuel)
