The Dallas Stars (2-1-0) and Minnesota Wild (1-1-1) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 5:30 p.m. EDT at Grand Casino Arena in St. Paul, Minn. The game will be broadcast live on TBS.
The Wild are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6 (-119o / -102u). The Wild are a -136 favorite to win outright, while the Stars are +114 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Stars vs. Wild predictions and NHL picks.
Stars vs. Wild Odds, Pick
| Stars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -220 | 6 -119o / -102u | +114 |
| Wild Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 6 -119o / -102u | -136 |
- Stars vs. Wild Spread: Wild -1.5 (+180 ), Stars +1.5 (-220)
- Stars vs. Wild Over/Under: 6 (-119o / -102u)
- Stars vs. Wild Moneyline: Stars +114, Wild -136
Stars vs Wild Kalshi Odds
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Stars vs. Wild Prediction
Action Network’s PRO Projections have keyed in on a massive edge for tonight’s high-stakes Game 4 between the Stars and Wild.
While the public is likely to ride the hot hand, our models suggest a significant regression is coming for one of the league’s premier snipers.
PRO Projections have identified an 11.2% edge on Jason Robertson Under 3.5 Shots on Goal (+114). This pick isn't for the faint of heart, but the numbers suggest the plus-money price at DraftKings is a major market oversight.
Betting the under on Robertson right now feels like standing in front of a freight train. He has been the focal point of the Dallas offense, recording at least five shots on goal in every single game of this series so far.
However, the Stars-Wild series has been a marathon. Dallas took a 2-1 lead on Wednesday after a grueling 4-3 double-overtime victory. Robertson was everywhere in that win, recording three points and continuing his goal-scoring streak (he now has a goal in three consecutive games)
While Robertson's production has been elite, his shot-to-net ratio has reached an unsustainable peak.
Over the last three games, Robertson has attempted 21 shots, with 16 of them hitting the net.
Maintaining a 76% shot-on-goal rate is nearly impossible over a long stretch, even for a player of Robertson's caliber.
Our systems project Robertson for 3.41 shots tonight. While he is undoubtedly a volume shooter, the shift from a wide-open Game 3 back to a standard regulation pace, combined with Minnesota's defensive adjustments, makes the 3.5 line a perfect fading opportunity.
Minnesota has been defensively solid for much of this series, despite the 2-1 deficit. Jesper Wallstedt has provided high-level goaltending, and the Wild’s blue line is expected to prioritize taking away Robertson’s space after he dominated the score sheet on Wednesday.
Dallas is an incredibly talented team, and even if Robertson has a "quiet" night with only three shots, the Stars have the depth to win.
But for bettors, the value lies in the fact that Robertson isn't perfect. After a 100-plus minute game on Wednesday, a slight dip in volume is mathematically expected.
Pick: Jason Robertson Under 3.5 Shots on Goal (+114, DraftKings)
