The Philadelphia Flyers will look to wrap up a four-game sweep over the rival Pittsburgh Penguins Saturday evening. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. EDT at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, Pa. The game will be broadcast live on TBS.
The Flyers are priced at +210 to cover the puck line (-1.5), with the over/under set at 5.5 (-120o/+100u). The Flyers are a -120 favorite to win outright, while the Penguins are -100 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Penguins vs. Flyers predictions and NHL picks.
Penguins vs. Flyers Odds, Pick
| Penguins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -254 | 5.5 -121o / +101u | -100 |
| Flyers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +205 | 5.5 -121o / +101u | -120 |
- Penguins vs. Flyers Spread: Flyers -1.5 (+210 ), Penguins +1.5 (-260)
- Penguins vs. Flyers Over/Under: 5.5 (-120o / +100u)
- Penguins vs. Flyers Moneyline: Penguins -100, Flyers -120
Penguins vs Flyers Kalshi Odds
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Penguins vs. Flyers Preview
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins finished with 34 regulation wins, a +25 goal differential, and ranked 11th in expected goal share. For the majority of the season, they looked to be the more complete team and were a favorite entering the series as a result.
However, Flyers head coach Rick Tocchet made some notable tactical adjustments that led to dominant results following the Olympic break, which have proved quite conducive to playoff hockey. No team allowed fewer goals off the rush or fewer chances against off the rush than the Flyers after the Olympic break.
The Penguins, meanwhile, have continued to attempt to drive possession with controlled zone exits and entries, and many of those looks simply have not been there in this series, in which the Flyers' systematic approach has won out.
Through three games, the Penguins hold an expected goal share of just 41.83% and have generated only 2.57 xGF/60. Pittsburgh had underrated offensive depth this season, but that strength has really not shone through in this series, in which the Flyers have consistently stayed committed to a well-structured team game.
Though Stuart Skinner has been outperformed by his counterpart, Dan Vladar, in this series, Game 3 is the only one of the three matchups where it realistically seems fair to say the Penguins potentially deserved a better outcome.
Pittsburgh got off to a much better start in Game 3 on the road, but came unglued after Skinner allowed a notably soft goal to Rasmus Ristolainen midway through the second. The Penguins generated 3.54 expected goals in Game 3 and had arguably their best performance offensively, but even still, it was far from a matchup in which they were clearly the better side.
Head coach Dan Muse deserves a lot of credit for his work this season. The Penguins were priced at +650 to make the playoffs entering the year and were never supposed to be anywhere close to a 98-point team. Though Muse's overall body of work is impressive, he's clearly been outcoached in this series tactically and has also made some really puzzling lineup decisions.
For the majority of the campaign, the Penguins iced a top line of Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell, and a second unit of Evgeni Malkin, Egor Chinakhov and Tommy Novak when healthy. For no apparent reason, Muse strayed from the units for the first five periods of this series, and while it was far from the only reason for the outcomes of those games, the new units clearly lacked cohesion.
The Rakell-Crosby-Rust combination had a much better showing at even strength in Game 3, as they outshot the Flyers 6-0 and outattempted them 16 to 0.
Perhaps the single greatest issue for the Penguins in this series has been the horrific play of the second defensive pairing of Kris Letang and Sam Girard, with Letang in particular being the worst skater from either side.
Based on Letang's standing in the room and meaning to the organization, Muse would be in a tough spot if he were to either scratch or significantly reduce Letang's ice time, but at this point it seems hard to believe Letang is capable of elevating his game, which is a huge concern given how badly he has struggled and that he is still handling over 20 minutes a night.
At the time of writing, the Penguins have not yet confirmed a starting goaltender, and it would not be entirely shocking if they pivot to Arturs Silovs in an effort to simply try and change something, though I would not personally agree that Skinner is the reason they are down 3-0.
Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers managed just 27 regulation wins and leaned on a record of 10-4 to sneak into the playoffs. While it's true that with a 3-2-1 point system, Philadelphia's struggles in the middle portion of the season would have been too much to overcome, it's also true that it elevated its play significantly down the stretch and transformed into a team that was legitimately quite good.
Philadelphia played to a record of 18-7-1 following the Olympic break and allowed only 2.75 xGA/60 in that span. While the roster lacks elite talent up front, they offer a quietly deep blue line and a lot of strong two-way players up front, and the roster has really bought into employing Tocchet's defensive structure effectively.
It certainly doesn't hurt that Porter Martone has made more of an impact than most would have ever expected, myself included. Martone has put up three points in three games in the series and, perhaps more impressively, has not looked remotely out of place playing away from the puck.
Vladar has now been confirmed as the Flyers' starting goaltender, following an injury scare in Game 3. He holds a +4.0 GSAx rating and a .947 save percentage in the series.
Penguins vs. Flyers Prediction
In terms of betting a side, my lean would be with the Flyers at -120, as for the majority of the series, it has felt as though they are the team dictating play, while they are also receiving better goaltending. Pittsburgh did push back with a much better performance in Game 3, which is my only concern towards backing Philly, but a price of +100 still does not feel long enough to gamble on a Penguins side that looks outclassed.
A price of +100 for Rust to record three or more shots does look appealing to me, though. Muse went back to the Rakell-Crosby-Rust trio in Game 3, and the unit was entirely dominant, while the Penguins' bottom six remained a huge concern.
There is no guarantee that this is not the final playoff game of Crosby's historic career, and with that in mind and the play of the Penguins' bottom-six, it would make sense to see Rust's line take on a massive workload in this game.
Rust has recorded eight shots on goal from 20 shot attempts in this series, and a price of +110 for him to record three shots looks appealing in this matchup.
Pick: Bryan Rust Over 2.5 Shots on Goal +110 (FanDuel, Play to -110)
