The Montreal Canadiens (1-0-0) and Tampa Bay Lightning (0-0-1) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Fla. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN2.
The Lightning are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (+116o / -142u). The Lightning are a -194 favorite to win outright, while the Canadiens are +160 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Canadiens vs. Lightning predictions and NHL picks.
Canadiens vs. Lightning Odds, Pick
| Canadiens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 6.5 116o / -142u | +160 |
| Lightning Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +122 | 6.5 116o / -142u | -194 |
- Canadiens vs. Lightning Spread: Lightning -1.5 (+122 ), Canadiens +1.5 (-150)
- Canadiens vs. Lightning Over/Under: 6.5 (+116o / -142u)
- Canadiens vs. Lightning Moneyline: Canadiens +160, Lightning -194
Canadiens vs. Lightning Preview
Montreal Canadiens
Is anyone actually surprised that Juraj Slafkovsky took over Game 1 on Sunday?
Since he was 17 years old, he has been taking over critical games, dating back to the 2020 Olympics. Now in his first-ever NHL Playoff game, Slafkovsky came in with a hat trick, including the game-winner in overtime.
But what's interesting is that the line combo of Slafkovsky, Nick Suzuki, and Cole Caufield was one of Montreal's least effective 5-on-5 lines. In fact, all of Slafkovsky's goals came on the power play. But it's interesting since both Suzuki and Caufield were one of the NHL's dynamic young duos.
The line that dominated the most was the trio of Alex Texier, Alex Newhook and Ivan Demidov, where they posted a 70% expected goals rate, which was 40 points better than any of Montreal's lines.
Jakub Dobes was pretty stellar as expected. He played like one of the best goaltenders in the finals stretch of the season, and posted a -0.9 GSAx on Sunday, but didn't allow any rebound opportunities.
Montreal's defense also did an incredible job at limiting high-danger chances, which helped make Dobes' life easier.
Tampa Bay Lightning
I'm not sure what was more surprising about Sunday's loss. Whether Andrei Vasilevskiy let in the three high-danger chances against him, or the Lightning allowed three power-play goals.
Over the past 20 games, Vasilevskiy had one of the best save percentages against high-danger shots, and the Lightning had the third-best penalty kill in the league.
It's still unclear when captain Victor Hedman is going to return to the ice. He already resumed skating and is back with the team, but having the captain back is always a positive for team morale.
The line of Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli and Jake Guentzel was easily the most productive line for Tampa Bay, generating a 96% expected goals rate and a .015 On-Ice Expected Goals Against.
Hagel also chipped in with two goals of the night, with Guentzel notching three helpers.
Canadiens vs. Lightning Prediction
For the most part, Game 1 was tight-knit, but it's not a surprise given how Montreal is one of the better teams on the road.
I don't anticipate Tampa's penalty kill being that porous again, and it seems like the books agree wholeheartedly. I was shocked to see how much FanDuel favors the Bolts, just because Montreal hung in with them the whole time.
The large discrepancy here is throwing me off, so I may side with the books here. They seem to think that Tampa Bay is due for vengeance, and given its long history in the postseason, I think that's awfully fair to assume.
I'm taking a shot here and picking the Lightning to win by a pair of goals or more. I'm a sucker for plus-money opportunities, and given how confident the books are that they'll bounce back, we're going to pick them on the puck line.
Pick: Lightning -1.5 (+122, FanDuel)
