The Los Angeles Kings (35-27-20) and Colorado Avalanche (55-16-11) meet in Game 1 of the NHL Playoffs today. Puck drop is set for 3:00 p.m. EDT at Ball Arena in Denver, Colo. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Avalanche are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (-132o / +108u). The Avalanche are a -265 favorite to win outright, while the Kings are +215 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Kings vs. Avalanche predictions and NHL picks.
Kings vs. Avalanche Odds, Pick
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -114 | 5.5 -132o / 108u | +215 |
| Avalanche Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -106 | 5.5 -132o / 108u | -265 |
- Kings vs. Avalanche Spread: Avalanche -1.5 (-106 ), Kings +1.5 (-114)
- Kings vs. Avalanche Over/Under: 5.5 (-132o / +108u)
- Kings vs. Avalanche Moneyline: Kings +215, Avalanche -265
Kings vs Avalanche Kalshi Odds
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Kings vs. Avalanche Preview
Los Angeles Kings
There's no sugarcoating it: the Kings are outmatched in this series and maybe fortunate to even be in the playoffs.
That said, Los Angeles earned its way in. A 6-1-2 run through April secured the West's final Wild Card spot, and despite how bumpy the season has been in some respects, the underlying numbers hold up better than you might expect.
Defensively, the Kings are one of the stingiest teams in the league, ranking sixth in xGA/60 at 2.84. Offense isn't a strength, but they've shown an ability to scrap through tight games, with a league-leading 33 of their games going to overtime.
Up front, two storylines stand out. The first is Anze Kopitar, who is taking his final shot at the playoffs after lifting the Stanley Cup in 2012 and 2014. The second is Artemi Panarin, whose arrival has at least breathed some life into an offense that has been an issue all year.
Los Angeles ranks 23rd in xGF/60 at 2.96 and scored the fourth-fewest GF/60 at 2.63. That figure has ticked up slightly since Panarin joined the lineup, with the Kings averaging 2.94 GF/60 across the 26 games with him in the lineup.
In net, I'd be surprised if they didn't roll with Anton Forsberg over Darcy Kuemper. Forsberg closed April in terrific form, winning five of his six starts while posting a .944 SV% and a 1.48 GAA, and his season-long numbers also come out well ahead of his tandem partner with a +9.4 GSAx compared to Kuemper's -5.8.
Colorado Avalanche
Pretty much wire to wire this season, outside of power play efficiency, where they rank 27th at 17.1%, the Avalanche have been at or near the top of just about every notable stat.
A lot of that stems from their blistering start, where they lost just once in regulation through their first 26 games. Even now, they finished first in expected goal share (56.55%), GF/60 (3.59), GA/60 (2.37), and goal differential (+101), a mark that sits 44 goals clear of Tampa Bay.
From top to bottom, the lineup is absolutely stacked, with plenty of firepower spread across a group led by Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas, and Cale Makar, who have combined for 306 points this season.
Anything short of a Stanley Cup would be a disappointment, which is a nerve-wracking place to be. Only eight teams have captured the Presidents' Trophy and gone on to win it all since the award was introduced in 1985, and none have done it since the 2012-13 Blackhawks.
Their form heading into the playoffs lines up with the season as a whole, even after having the Central Division and top seed in the West essentially locked up for much of their last 10 games. Over that stretch, Colorado sits at 3.66 xGF/60 and 2.77 xGA/60 while allowing a league-low 1.98 GA/60.
For me, and probably Avalanche fans as well, Scott Wedgewood is the easy choice in net, though we'll see if head coach Jared Bednar agrees.
Wedgewood played 45 games to Mackenzie Blackwood's 38, and he outpaces not only his tandem partner but nearly every other goalie in the league across the key categories.
He owns an NHL-best .921 SV% and 2.02 GAA, compared to Blackwood's .904 and 2.51, and ranks fifth in the league with a +23.1 GSAx, while Blackwood's +8.3 is still solid in its own right.
On top of that, Wedgewood has been excellent over his last 10 games, posting a +10.4 GSAx, a .942 SV%, and a 1.37 GAA, with the latter two both leading the league.
Kings vs. Avalanche Prediction
This is an easy pick to make, and there isn't much more to add beyond the obvious that Colorado is the clear better team.
Yes, the Kings have played spoiler to a Presidents' Trophy winner before, knocking off Vancouver in 2012 before going on to win it all, but these Kings aren’t those Kings, and Colorado is on a different tier entirely.
Could Los Angeles steal a game? Unlikely, but not out of the question. However, they’re not winning the series, and I expect the Avalanche to hold serve at home relatively easily across the first two games.
Pick: Avalanche -1.5 (-106, FanDuel)
