The Boston Bruins (45-27-10) and Buffalo Sabres (50-23-9) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Sabres are priced at +140 to cover the puck-line (-1.5), with the over/under set at 6 (-118o / -102u). The Sabres are a -170 favorite to win outright, while the Bruins are +140 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Bruins vs. Sabres predictions and NHL picks.
Bruins vs. Sabres Odds, Pick
| Bruins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 6 -118o / -102u | +140 |
| Sabres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 6 -118o / -102u | -170 |
- Bruins vs. Sabres Spread: Bruins +1.5 (-170), Sabres -1.5 (+140)
- Bruins vs. Sabres Over/Under: 6 (-118o/-102u)
- Bruins vs. Sabres Moneyline: Bruins +140, Sabres -170
Bruins vs. Sabres Preview
Boston Bruins
Given that the Sabres won the division, their magical season was still a greater surprise than the Bruins', but Boston was considered a much heavier underdog to make the playoffs as it entered the year priced at +400 to qualify.
Even coming out of the Olympic break, the Bruins were still priced as an underdog to make the playoffs, but continued to prove most models and oddsmakers wrong.
Jeremy Swayman's play in goal is the greatest reason the Bruins were able to steal a playoff berth, as Swayman ranked second in the NHL with a +28.8 GSAx rating.
Regular-season goaltending results are less of a predictive indicator of playoff success than you would assume, which is an easy notion to argue if you look at recent Stanley Cup Finalists. That fact is a concern for the Bruins, but if they are to make a run, brilliant play from Swayman will likely be a big part of the story.
The Bruins will likely attempt to make this tough road game into a low-event slog with their 1-2-2 neutral zone system and look to keep the Sabres' strong attack off the rush in check. Boston allowed the third-fewest xGA/60 off the rush this season, which was the greatest strength of the team defensively.
Many of the chances in which goaltenders have no chance to make a save come off the rush, so limiting those looks will go a long way to helping Swayman's dominance come to fruition.
While the Bruins did defend well in that regard, they were not a team that drove possession well this season, and their systematic play in the defensive zone was far less sharp. Over the last 15 games of the season Boston held a 47.71% expected goal share and consistently spent less time in the offensive zone than its opponent.
While it wasn't an entirely shocking storyline for Swayman to bounce back with a Vezina-level campaign, very few observers would have ever expected the Bruins to hold such solid secondary scoring. I know I certainly didn't.
The Bruins ranked tenth in the NHL, averaging 3.27 goals for per game this season, and scored 20.94 goals above expectation. Generally when we see this type of offensive overachievement driven by a high shooting percentage, fans of that team drum up arguments as to why, in their instance, it's sustainable. Last season, it was the Washington Capitals, and the year before, it was the Vancouver Canucks.
Looking at some of the talents for the Bruins who finished at a high rate this season and the team's overall offensive process, it does seem logical to conclude that it is less of an offensive powerhouse than it seems.
Buffalo Sabres
The Sabres are currently priced as the third favorite to win the Eastern Conference at +650, while the Bruins are considered the least likely to win the East at +2000.
What that tells us is that oddsmakers do not power-rate the Sabres as high as you might expect, as though they are heavily favored to win this series, they are expected to be fairly significant underdogs in the following two rounds.
The Sabres held the fourth-highest shooting percentage and third-highest save percentage in the NHL this season. They ranked 16th in expected goal share but finished with an excellent +47 goal differential.
There are plenty of intricacies to the NHL game that are not analytically quantified. Still, regular-season expected goal share has been a highly effective indicator in recent years as the last seven Stanley Cup-winning teams have averaged fifth place based on expected goal share per Evolving Hockey’s model. Given the randomness of the NHL playoffs, that certainly suggests the numbers mean something.
With those things said, there is a ton to like about the Sabres' composition. They offer legitimate offensive upside on each line with a good balance of speed, skill and gritty two-way players; offer a Norris-caliber number-one defender in Rasmus Dahlin; and had a legitimate number-one forward in Tage Thompson.
A lack of experience could be pegged as a knock on the team. But as we saw when the upstart Flyers authored a brilliant, well-rounded performance Saturday evening, that certainly does not guarantee the roster is not capable of performing in the postseason.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is expected to get the start in goal. He played to a +10.5 GSAx rating and .909 save percentage across 35 appearances this season. He is entirely unproven in the postseason, but again, that is something that historically has not been as much of an indicator as anything, as would be expected.
Bruins vs. Sabres Prediction
Though the Bruins played a fairly high-event game throughout the totality of the regular season, it doesn't seem likely they will take a tactical approach geared towards winning a high-scoring game in this tough road matchup. They will likely look to clog up the neutral zone to try and make this game into a slog, and limit the Sabres to the types of chances Swayman can handle.
Boston's final seven regular-season games averaged 4.71 combined goals and went 6-1 to the under. It does not appear to be as strong offensively as the totality of the season suggests, and in general I believe it profiles as more of a low-event team than the overall results of the regular season suggest.
At -105, I see value backing this matchup to feature under 6 goals, and would bet 6 down to -115.
Pick: Under 6 Goals -102 (BetMGM | Play to -115)
