NHL Prediction, Odds, Preview: Stars vs Panthers Pick (Wednesday, Dec. 6)
Vincent Ethier/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Sergei Bobrovsky (72) of the Florida Panthers.
Stars vs. Panthers Odds
| Stars Odds | -102 |
| Panthers Odds | -118 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +106 / -130 |
Dallas takes on Florida at Amerant Bank Arena on Wednesday night, and here's my breakdown of the game and my Stars vs. Panthers prediction and pick.
Dallas is currently on round two of the Florida gauntlet, just recently getting shut out from the Lightning 4-0. They hold second place in the Central Division but are playing .500 hockey at the moment.
The Panthers are in an identical situation to their counterparts. Most recently, they fell to the Islanders on Saturday and sit in second place in the Atlantic Division. On top of that, they’re also playing .500 hockey as teams behind them in the standings are creeping up.
Here’s a look at the odds, as well as my betting prediction between the Dallas Stars and Florida Panthers.
Dallas is loaded up front. Its youngsters Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz are pure stars, and its veterans in Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Matt Duchene are all putting up great numbers.
Let’s also not forget Joe Pavelski, the near-40-year-old, is leading the Stars in points.
It feels like the Stars do everything well at all times. Their 5-on-5 play is exceptional, ranking eighth in expected goals with a 53.6 xGF%, and defensively the team ranks eighth with a 2.42 xGA/60.
On special teams, Dallas is even better. Its power play scores at an exceptional 22% clip, and the penalty kill is stifling, succeeding at a second-best 88.8% rate.
I’ll be curious to see if we see either Jake Oettinger or Scott Wedgewood in net tonight.
Oettinger struggled against Tampa on Monday, and Wedgewood hasn’t seen the ice since Nov. 30.
Since Florida’s a tough opponent, I think we see Oettinger, who’s had an up-and-down season. He’s playing to a .915 SV% and a +5.5 goals saved above expected (GSAx).
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Florida is picking up right where it left off.
The offensive resurgence from Sam Reinhart has been a pleasant surprise. He was always a top-notch scorer, but he’s on pace to shatter his career-high of 33 goals.
Aleksander Barkov is averaging more than a point per game, and Carter Verhaeghe is not too far behind. A little surprising, though, is Matthew Tkachuk, who’s playing fine but not at the superstar level he’s used to.
The Panthers excel at 5-on-5 hockey. They’re seventh with a solid 53.82 xGF%, and defensively they are even better with a 2.34 xGA/60.
I mentioned how Florida does well at even-strength play, but the special teams play needs work. It struggles on the power play, scoring only 17.5% of the time. The penalty kill does well, though, succeeding 81% of the time, but it could still be better.
I’d expect Sergei Bobrovsky to start tonight since Anthony Stolarz started on Saturday.
Bobrovsky has had himself a really solid start to the season, including a .962 SV% in the last three games, a .912 SV% and a +4.0 GSAx in 18 starts.
Stars vs. Panthers
Betting Pick & Prediction
This matchup is really even. Both teams play a similar brand of hockey with evenly stacked rosters. The only advantage I’d give is Dallas on the penalty kill, but special teams can be so unpredictable at times.
When looking at the lines here, I’d really consider taking under the total.
FanDuel has the under at an understandable -130. If Oettinger is starting like I think he is, we may see goaltending take over the game. Both teams have incredible scoring options, but their defenses reign supreme which will be perfect for the netminders.
I’ll be taking the under barring any goaltending changes.
Pick: Under 6.5 at -130
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