Sunday NHL Odds, Picks, Prediction: Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild Betting Preview
Glenn James/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Jake Oettinger.
- The Wild are favored at home on Sunday against the surging Stars.
- Dallas is chasing Minnesota in the Central Division, with the host winning just three of its last 10 games.
- Nicholas Martin breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.
Stars vs. Wild Odds
|Over/Under||6.5 (-105 / -115)|
|Time||4 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.|
Two Central Division rivals heading in opposite directions will meet Sunday, when the scuffling Minnesota Wild play host to a scorching hot Stars team. Dallas’ recent surge now has it within two points of Minnesota for third in the division.
Can Dallas take another big step towards the postseason here and compound Minnesota’s struggles, or are the Wild due to kick out of a notable downswing?
Stars Enter Minnesota Red Hot
The Stars managed yet another massive victory Friday, putting together a third-period comeback before seeing Jason Robertson cap off a hat trick in overtime, to move their record to 8-2-1 over their last 11 games.
The excellent run of play has moved the Stars playoff chances up to 68%, according to MoneyPuck, with that high chance being partially calculated based off of recent analytical play, where the Stars have been strong of late.
Dallas holds a 55.27% expected goals rate over the last 11 games and has started to play sharper in front of goal, which has helped allow Jake Oettinger thrive in goal.
The Stars dominant top line of Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski, and Roope Hintz continues to be nearly impossible to stop, similar to what we saw last year. Should the rest of the offensive unit continue to help support that line, the Stars will really be a tough out.
Oettinger will likely get the start here, with strong recent marks raising his goals saved above expected rating (GSAx) to +5.7 and save percentage to .922 in 27 games this season.
Wild Need To Improve Quickly
Minnesota has fallen into what has been the only truly poor run of play under coach Dean Evason. The Wild are 3-7-0 mark over their last 10 contests, including a 5-4 loss to the Sabres on Friday.
A 43.9% expected goals rate over that span suggests the poor results haven’t just been bad luck, and the goaltending seen from the duo of Cam Talbot and Kaapo Kahkonen has been another part of the problem for the Wild.
The team currently has been missing some key pieces in Matt Dumba and Jordan Greenway. Mats Zuccarello joined the list of absentees against Buffalo.
The roster on hand should still be able to fare better even without those three, but the Wild have fallen into a poor run of play both results wise and with regards to expected results, and it will take a far better contest than we have seen of late in order to bounce back against a red hot Stars club here.
It’s unclear whether we will see Talbot or Kahkonen here, but both have posted less than strong numbers of late. Talbot has a -3.8 GSAx rating and .907 save percentage in 33 games, while Kahkonen has been sharper with a +2.9 GSAx and .915 save percentage in 22 appearances this season.
Stars vs. Wild Pick
With the excellent results we have seen of late from the Stars, and Minnesota clearly scuffling through a number of concerns right now, I see value backing Dallas as an underdog at +120 than looking for the Wild to find their form here.
Surely this game does offer another massive spot for the Wild to reset, but they have been trying to put together better play for weeks now, and thing’s just don’t seem to be working right now.
Part of the concern for Minnesota has been the less than stellar play of their goaltending duo of late. While the Stars have seen fantastic goaltending from Oettinger, Dallas certainly holds a notable edge in goal based on that recent form.
Beyond that it’s easy to see this one at least playing out with close to even game play. With that in mind the Stars certainly seem to hold more value as an underdog at +120, and I would back Dallas down to +105.
Pick: Stars +120, (play to +105)
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