The Philadelphia Flyers and Carolina Hurricanes meet in Game 1 of the second round of the NHL Playoffs tonight. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. EDT at Lenovo Center in Raleigh, N.C. The game will be broadcast live on ABC.
The Hurricanes are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (-120o / +100u). The Hurricanes are a -218 favorite to win outright, while the Flyers are +180 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Flyers vs. Hurricanes predictions and NHL picks.
Flyers vs. Hurricanes Odds, Pick
| Flyers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -148 | 5.5 -120o / 100u | +180 |
| Hurricanes Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +124 | 5.5 -120o / 100u | -218 |
- Flyers vs. Hurricanes Spread: Flyers +1.5 (-148), Hurricanes -1.5 (+124)
- Flyers vs. Hurricanes Over/Under: 5.5 (-122o / +100u)
- Flyers vs. Hurricanes Moneyline: Flyers +180, Hurricanes -218
Flyers vs Hurricanes Kalshi Odds
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Flyers vs. Hurricanes Preview
Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers and Hurricanes met four times this season, with Philly going 1-0-3 in those matchups. Every game went to overtime, three of them to a shootout, and the one win came in early April when Carolina was already locked into the top seed and sitting most of its regulars.
The win doesn't hold a lot of weight, but the season series as a whole tells you something about this group.
Coming out of the Olympic break with just a 10% chance to make the playoffs, the Flyers have worked their way into the second round behind their defense. Over the final 20 games of the regular season at 5-on-5, Philadelphia allowed just 1.57 GA/60 and 2.35 xGA/60.
What has made them a more complete team as of late is finding some offensive punch up front. Porter Martone arrived from the collegiate ranks on March 31, and two days later, Tyson Foerster returned from arm surgery, giving the Flyers a more credible threat to pair with that defensive structure.
Foerster has just three goals and an assist in 15 games since returning and has yet to find the scoresheet this postseason, but scored 10 goals in 21 games before the injury and demands some respect.
He also adds value at the other end, giving Philadelphia another disruptive presence alongside Noah Cates and Sean Couturier on the third and fourth lines.
Then there is Dan Vladar, who has been one of the best goaltenders in the playoffs, posting a +6.9 GSAx and a .937 SV%. As long as he keeps playing at that level, the Flyers may very well have some magic left.
Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes handled a tough Senators team convincingly in four games, never once having to play from behind. At the top of the list of reasons why was their second line.
Taylor Hall, Logan Stankoven and Jackson Blake have been Carolina's best line this postseason, putting up an enormous 73.6% expected goal share and 4.96 xGF/60, while holding opponents to just 1.78 xGA/60 on the other end.
Hall leads all Hurricanes with seven points, Stankoven scored in all four games, and Blake chipped in a goal and three assists.
The Jarvis-Aho-Svechnikov top line was quiet by comparison, going goalless in just under 47 minutes of ice time, with Aho the only one of the three to register a point at 5-on-5. That is an obvious area Carolina will need more from as the playoffs go along.
The good news is it hasn't cost them yet. Much like Philadelphia, Carolina is suffocating on defense. The Hurricanes ranked top five in xGA during the regular season, sit second in xGA/60 through the first round, and allowed just five goals in those four games.
Frederik Andersen deserves plenty of credit for those numbers as well.
Goaltending was a legitimate question mark coming in, and for good reason. Carolina limits chances as well as anyone, finishing the regular season with the fewest shots on goal against, yet still ranked 26th in team SV% at .886. Andersen has answered every bit of that concern, posting a +7.6 GSAx and a .955 SV% in his four starts.
Flyers vs. Hurricanes Prediction
Unders aren't much fun, but I like this spot too much to pass it up.
These two teams combined are allowing 2.85 GA/60 through the first round. Carolina does a great job taking away opponents' best players, as evidenced by Brady Tkachuk being held off the scoresheet entirely last series and Tim Stützle finishing with just one assist.
On the other side, the Flyers' only avenue to stay in this series runs through the defensive end, so I expect a grind-it-out style of play and their nifty 1-1-3 neutral zone setup to keep working.
Both goaltenders have been as good as it gets in these playoffs, with the top two GSAx ratings and both sitting above a .930 SV%.
Carolina leads all teams in xGF/60 at 4.16 this postseason but has struggled to consistently find the net, and I'll trust Vladar to hold up as he did against a Pittsburgh team that was dangerous in its own right, posting a league-leading 83 goals over the final 20 games of the regular season.
As a bonus, I like the Flyers puck line with a smaller bet.
Carolina was the best home moneyline team this season at 29-12, but was just 13-28 on the puck line. No question the Hurricanes are the better team and have more avenues to win, but this line slightly disrespects a Flyers group that has gone to overtime in all four meetings with Carolina this season and has played its best hockey over the last couple of months.
Pick: Under 5.5 (+100, DraftKings) | Flyers +1.5 (-148, DraftKings)
