The Pittsburgh Penguins (7-2-1) and Philadelphia Flyers (4-3-1) meet in the Battle of Pennsylvania tonight. Puck drop is set for 6:00 p.m. EDT at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pa. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Flyers are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6 (-110o / -110u). The Flyers are a -160 favorite to win outright, while the Penguins are +135 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Penguins vs. Flyers predictions and NHL picks.
Penguins vs. Flyers Odds, Pick
| Penguins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 6 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Flyers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 6 -110o / -110u | -160 |
- Penguins vs. Flyers Spread: Penguins +1.5 (-190), Flyers -1.5 (+160)
- Penguins vs. Flyers Over/Under: 6 (-110o / -110u)
- Penguins vs. Flyers Moneyline: Penguins +135, Flyers -160
Penguins vs. Flyers Preview
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins have been playing solid hockey to start the season, holding the second-best record in the Eastern Conference.
Sidney Crosby continues to amaze everyone with his innate ability to stay in peak physical shape, and another ageless wonder, Evgeni Malkin, currently leads the league in points.
Are we back in 2010?
I do, however, expect a drop-off to come by soon.
The underlying numbers don’t favor the Penguins that much, as they’ve been playing an underwhelming 5-on-5 game with a 47.81 xGF% and are even worse defensively, wielding a fourth-worst 3.12 xGA/60.
Special teams have been keeping them afloat, and while that’s critical, it’s rarely the full story.
Pittsburgh has been scoring on the power play at an insane rate, converting at 33%, the second-best mark in the league. The penalty kill has held up decently at 80%.
What I’m curious about is the goaltending. After Tristan Jarry did an admirable job stopping the Blues last night, I’d expect Arturs Silovs to get in between the pipes.
Silovs is a solid backup and is continuing that trend, playing to an exceptional .914 SV% and a 3.5 GSAx.
Philadelphia Flyers
Unlike their opponent, the Flyers are coming into this game well-rested.
They’re coming off Saturday’s matinee against the Islanders — a gritty, character win in which they came back from 3–2 to win 4–3 in a shootout.
Philly may be a sleeping giant when it’s all said and done. Tyson Foerster is one of the more underrated scorers in the league, and Owen Tippett looks poised for a fourth consecutive 20-goal season.
But what really stands out is this defense. The Flyers have been performing as one of the top 5-on-5 defensive teams in the league with a 2.14 xGA/60. And as cruel as it sounds, the absence of Rasmus Ristolainen has helped that cause.
Cam York and Travis Sanheim are a stud pairing, and I only expect Jaime Drysdale to improve after a less-than-stellar season in 2024-25.
The main concern, though, is in net.
Dan Vladar has taken the bulk of the starts, and while I’ve always seen him as a solid backup, he’s never been a true starter.
So while he’s playing great now, with a .932 SV%, his 2.8 GSAx seems to suggest that his defense is bailing him out.
Penguins vs. Flyers Prediction
The moneyline value in this matchup is too skewed for me to pick either team, and I’m not convinced this will be a puckline battle either.
So for this one, I’m looking at the total.
The number currently sits at six goals, and I can definitely see tonight’s duel going over.
Why, you may ask? Well, Pittsburgh is an older team, coming off a back-to-back at home. And while the flight from Pittsburgh to Philly isn’t that long, it’s still a travel day.
The Penguins are also turning to Arturs Silovs, who’s been fine so far, but I’m not ready to trust him fully yet.
Both teams have also found ways into high-scoring games, especially Pittsburgh, which has hit over six goals in 60% of its matchups.
With Philly coming in rested and at home, there’s a strong chance the Flyers push the pace. So let’s ride with the over.
Pick: Over 6 (-110)
