The Pittsburgh Penguins (13-7-5) and Tampa Bay Lightning (16-8-2) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EST at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Fla. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Lightning are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-105o / -115u). The Lightning are a -185 favorite to win outright, while the Penguins are +150 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Penguins vs. Lightning predictions and NHL picks.
Penguins vs. Lightning Odds, Pick
| Penguins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | +150 |
| Lightning Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | -185 |
Penguins vs. Lightning Spread: Lightning -1.5 (+135 ), Penguins +1.5 (-162)
Penguins vs. Lightning Over/Under: 6.5 (-105o / -115u)
Penguins vs. Lightning Moneyline: Penguins +150, Lightning -185
Penguins vs. Lightning Preview
The "Back Down To Earth" system focuses on NHL favorites facing opponents coming off emotional division wins in which they were underdogs. After those high-energy victories, teams often experience a natural letdown when shifting into a non-division matchup, where intensity and focus tend to slip.
In these situations, the favorite benefits from facing an opponent that may have overperformed in its previous outing and is now slightly overvalued by the market. Non-division games typically feature a slower pace and reduced urgency, which plays into the hands of disciplined favorites who can exploit opponents coming off high-effort wins.
Over time, this setup has consistently rewarded backing the steadier side as the opponent's execution and energy regress toward their true level.
Penguins vs. Lightning Prediction
Overall, the system stands at 607-364 (63%) with a 4% ROI across all-time results, and it's off to an 11-7 (61%) start this season with a 2% ROI.
Best Bet: Lightning Moneyline
